2026 California Propositions — Watch List

Snapshot: 2026-10-24. Election: Tue Nov 3. Fred’s votes: see 2026-11-03 voter-guide.md.

Here’s why this matters

Voters, not the legislature, have the final word on these, and what voters pass is hard to undo.

Prop 40, the billionaire tax, is the biggest money fight in the state and a national test of wealth taxes. Props 41 and 42 are poison pills: if either passes with more Yes votes than 40, it kills 40 even if 40 passes. Prop 42’s ban on wealth taxes is permanent.
Prop 39 (voter ID) is the main reason Republicans turn out. Even a loss creates a national talking point.
Prop 45 (CEQA) is the biggest housing and infrastructure policy change on the ballot.
The governor’s race isn’t close, so these measures are what’s left to drive turnout. That matters for close House seats like CA-22 and Fred’s CA-48.

Bottom line

The real fight is 40 vs 41/42. Prop 40 (billionaire tax) is under 50% in almost every September and October poll, and its lead has shrunk from about 7 points to roughly even. Opponents have spent about $304M (through Oct 20) against roughly $32M in favor. Realistically it leans No. Even if it passes, 42 could outpoll it and kill it.
Prop 45 (CEQA) is the sleeper. It went from 73% Yes in PPIC’s July poll to 49–46 in September. Erosion that fast usually ends in a No. It’s a toss-up that leans No.
Prop 39 (voter ID) leans No, but pollsters disagree. IGS and PPIC have it down 12–13 points; NBC/Telemundo and SurveyUSA had it up. It’s the measure most likely to bring out Republican voters.
Probably decided already: 3, 37, 2 (Yes); 5, 44 (No). Props 1 and 38 (bonds) lean Yes but are soft. Prop 4 and Prop 43 have about 30% undecided, and confused voters usually vote No.
Turnout: The governor’s race isn’t close (Emerson, Oct 17–19: Becerra +27). That means the props, mainly 39 and 40, are what’s left to drive turnout. Prop 40 is 68% Yes among voters under 30, so it only passes if young voters turn out.

Snapshot history

Date	Notes
2026-10-24	Initial snapshot. Most recent public polls: IGS Sept 15–20, PPIC Sept 4–10, TrueDot/Citrin-Politico Oct 9–14 (Prop 40 only). No October PPIC or IGS poll found. Added Backed-by column; standardized outlook labels.

Ranked — most critical/closest first

Likely YesLeans YesToss-upLeans NoLikely No

#	Prop	What (≤ 12 words)	Backed by	Fred	Latest polling (pollster, date)	$ For / Against	Realistic outlook	Why it matters / who it turns out
1	40	One-time 5% tax on ~200 billionaires’ net worth; mostly health care	D — SEIU-UHW, CA Dems, Sanders, Labor Fed · vs Brin, Newsom, CTA, CA GOP	Yes	TrueDot/Citrin-Politico Oct 9–14: 46–43. Manhattan Inst. (R) Sep 24–Oct 1: 35–50. IVC Sep 23–Oct 2: 38–42. IGS Sep 15–20: 45–42 (Aug 48–41). PPIC Sep 4–10: 52–46	~$32M / ~$118.5M direct (~$304M total incl. 41/42)	Leans No. A new tax under 50% this late usually loses (IGS: “undecideds likely break No”). Prediction markets give it 14–23%.	Biggest money fight in the state. National wealth-tax test. Can only pass with high turnout of young voters and voters of color.
2	42	Bans state wealth/personal-property taxes; voids conflicting taxes after 1/1/26	R — Brin committee, CA GOP, HJTA (?), Newsom · vs CA Dems, SEIU, Sanders	No	IGS Sep: 43–34 (23% undecided). PPIC Sep: 54–43	~$97.8M (Oct 5) / not reported	Toss-up. Leans Yes. Newsom endorsed it Oct 9. It’s the more dangerous of the two poison pills.	The way 40 gets killed even if it passes. The ban is permanent, beyond just Prop 40.
3	41	Voids new taxes exempt from the Gann spending limit	R — Brin committee, CA GOP, HJTA (?) · vs CA Dems, SEIU	No	IGS Sep: 37–33 (30% undecided). PPIC Sep: 51–44	~$58.4M (Oct 5) / not reported	Toss-up. Leans No. Wonky subject and a high undecided share, which usually breaks No.	Second poison pill aimed at 40.
4	45	CEQA deadlines: 365-day reviews, 270-day court rulings	R — CalChamber, Building Industry, CA GOP, hospitals · vs CA Dems, Sierra Club, labor	No	PPIC Sep: 49–46 (Jul: 73–24)	$30.4M / $22.2M (Oct 5)	Toss-up. Leans No. A 24-point slide in two months, with Labor and the environmental groups united against it.	Biggest housing and infrastructure policy change on the ballot. Labor vs. Chamber.
5	39	Voter ID in person; ID digits required on mail ballots	R — Reform California (DeMaio), Uihlein, CA GOP · vs CA Dems, Padilla, Labor Fed, Common Cause	Hard No	IGS Sep: 39–52. PPIC Sep: 43–55. IVP Sep 23–Oct 2: 43–40. NBC/Telemundo Sep 21–24: 49–42. Politico Oct 19: “falling short” (numbers not retrieved)	$22.0M / $21.0M (Oct 5)	Leans No. About 9 in 10 Republicans support it but nonpartisans oppose it. The polling gap between pollsters is real.	Main reason Republicans turn out. Even a loss creates a national talking point.
6	43	Two-thirds vote for citizen-initiated local special taxes	R — HJTA, Business Roundtable, CA GOP · vs firefighters, SEIU, teachers, Newsom, CA Dems	No	IGS Sep: 31–40 (29% undecided). PPIC Sep: 43–51	$14.0M / $5.4M (Oct 5)	Leans No.	Would raise the bar for future local measures like SD County’s sales tax.
7	4	Lifts ban on public campaign financing	D — Sen. Umberg (SB 42), CA Dems, LWV (?) · vs CA GOP, HJTA (?)	Yes	IGS Sep: 35–35 (30% undecided). PPIC Sep: 42–53	<$1M either side	Leans No. Low awareness, no money to explain it, and “taxpayer-funded campaigns” sounds bad.	Matters for good-government policy but drives no turnout.
8	1	$11.25B affordable-housing bond	D — Legislature, CA Dems · vs no organized opposition; CA GOP neutral	No	PPIC Sep: 55–43	$7.9M / none organized	Leans Yes. Soft. 55% is a thin cushion for a bond.	One of three bonds on the ballot (about $44B together), so bond fatigue is a risk.
9	38	$8.4B immunology research bond; half to one institute	Mixed — Michelson, Luskin, CA Dems (?), CA GOP · vs LWV, DSA	No	PPIC Sep: 55–42	$48.2M / not reported	Leans Yes. Soft. CalMatters’ scrutiny of the institute (3 employees) could cost it support.	Funded by one donor (Michelson), with about $4B going to a single nonprofit.
10	3	Makes the high-earner income tax permanent	D — CTA, CA Dems · vs CA GOP, HJTA (?)	Yes	IGS Sep: 54–34. PPIC Sep: 58–40	$49.3M / <$1M	Likely Yes. Markets ~94%.	$5–15B/yr. The safe wealth tax, which shows voters are distinguishing 3 from 40.
11	37	Realtor-backed second-mortgage loans for new homes	D — CA Realtors, CA Dems; CA GOP neutral · vs DeMaio	No	PPIC Sep: 61–35	$29.55M / not reported	Likely Yes.	A $25B revenue bond, but it reads to voters as “help buying a home.”
12	44	Clinics must spend 90% on programs	Mixed — SEIU-UHW, DSA · vs clinics, CMA, CA Dems, CA GOP	No	PPIC Sep: 34–61	$16.9M / $16.8M (Oct 5)	Likely No.	A labor fight between SEIU-UHW and the clinics.
13	5	Recall becomes yes/no only; no replacement candidates on same ballot	D — Legislature (SCA 1), CA Dems · vs CA GOP, SF Chronicle ed. board	Yes	PPIC Sep: 35–59	<$1M	Likely No.	Will likely lose because voters don’t know about it.
14	2	Raises rainy-day reserve cap	D — Legislature, CA Dems · vs CA GOP (wants rebates instead)	Yes	PPIC Sep: 60–39	<$1M	Likely Yes.	Low stakes and uncontroversial.

Polling format is Yes–No among likely voters. “Oct 5” money figures are FPPC top-contributor totals via California Today, so they understate the full totals.

Competing measures: 40 vs 41 vs 42

Rule (Cal. Const. Art. II §10(b)): If conflicting measures both pass, the one with more Yes votes prevails.
Prop 40 only survives if it passes AND gets more Yes votes than any of 41/42 that also pass. For example, 40 at 51% and 42 at 53% means 40 dies.
The math is bad for 40. Both counter-measures poll at or above 40 in PPIC’s survey. In IGS, 42’s support (43%) is near 40’s (45%), but 42’s undecideds lean conservative. Newsom backing 42 gives cover to Democrats who are against the billionaire tax.
Even a clean win isn’t final. Walters (CalMatters, Oct 22) lists what comes after: the poison-pill vote count, then state and federal lawsuits, then Franchise Tax Board valuation problems, then residency disputes over billionaires who left after Jan 1.
For Fred’s vote: A No on 41 and 42 counts as much as a Yes on 40.

Caveats

There’s no October PPIC or IGS poll yet. Most data is from September, before most of the ~$1M/day ad spending against 40.
Pollsters disagree a lot on 39 and 40. Manhattan Institute (R) and FM3 (D) are partisan sponsors, and IVP’s survey asked its question after giving respondents the LAO estimate.
PPIC’s undecided share is unusually low (it pushes respondents to choose), which inflates both Yes and No compared with IGS.
The money figures mix different cutoff dates (Oct 5 FPPC vs. Oct 20 Capital & Main). Opposition money for 37, 38, 41, and 42 wasn’t reported in the sources found.
Prediction-market odds (Defirate) come from a jumbled page. I’m treating them as directional only.
The Politico Oct 19 voter ID poll is cited, but I couldn’t retrieve its numbers.