2026 House — Competitive Races
Snapshot: 2026-10-24. Election: Tue Nov 3. 🏠 = Fred’s district (CA-48)
Here’s why this matters
The House writes the budget and tax bills, and the majority controls investigations, subpoenas and impeachment.
- The majority is thin. Republicans hold 218 seats, exactly a majority. Democrats need a net gain of about 4 from today’s seats.
- The maps changed mid-decade. Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee and Alabama redrew for Republicans; California (Prop 50) and Utah went the other way. On paper that nets Republicans roughly 6–9 seats, but in a strong Democratic year several of the new GOP seats are competitive (see the backfire watch below).
- The forecasts agree here more than on the Senate. Every major model favors Democrats, from DDHQ 79% to Silver 95%.
- Fred’s district is on the list. CA-48 is an open seat that Prop 50 made bluer.
Bottom line
- Now: 218 R – 214 D – 1 I (Kiley, CA-6, left GOP Mar 2026) – 2 vacant (FL-20 D, TX-23 R)
- Majority: 218. Dems need net +4 from today’s seats — but redistricting adds roughly 6–9 more on paper.
- Forecasts: Silver Bulletin D 95% (Oct 22) · DDHQ D 79% (~237 seats, Oct 23) · Split Ticket D 89% · markets D ~91–93%
- Cook (Oct 23): D +12 to +22 → 227–237. GOP hold chances “all but evaporated.”
- Generic ballot: D+7.4 to D+8.9 (Silver D+8.9, DDHQ D+7.9)
Snapshot history
Key numbers each update — so we can see how they track.
| Date | DDHQ / Silver Bulletin House D odds | Proj. D seats | Generic ballot | Cook Toss-ups | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 79% / 95% | ~237 | D+7.4–8.9 | 17 | Initial snapshot |
Redistricting 2025–26 (lines in effect for 2026)
| State | Shift | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | R+5 | New TX-9, TX-32, TX-35; SCOTUS allowed (Dec 2025) |
| California (Prop 50) | D+4–5 | CA-1/3/22/41/48 redrawn; Calvert & Kim forced together (CA-40) |
| Florida | R+3–4 | New FL-22; FL-9, FL-14 redder (May 2026) |
| Ohio | R+2 | OH-9, OH-13 |
| North Carolina | R+1 | NC-1 redder |
| Louisiana / Tennessee / Alabama | R+1 each | Post-Callais VRA rollback; TN-9 (Memphis) split; AL-2 now Lean R |
| Utah | D+1 | Court map, new Salt Lake D seat |
| Missouri, Virginia | 0 | MO 2025 map blocked (SCOTUS stay Sep 25); VA amendment struck May 8 |
| Net | ~R+6 to R+9 | DDHQ argues effective net near zero in this environment |
Gerrymander backfire watch
Short version: the GOP drew for ~15–16 seats; realistic net now is low single digits, maybe ~zero. DDHQ (Sep 14) has Dems netting ~+2 across the 9 redrawn states; GOP strategists privately fear the map war nets them one seat (Axios, Oct 20). Silver (early 2026): heavy gerrymanders risk “dummymanders” in a big D year.
| State (drew) | Targeted | Realistic now | Backfire / shortfall seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas (R) | 5 | ~R+2 | TX-15 (R seat made safer → Toss-up, D ~1 in 3) · TX-35 (new, D ~1 in 3) · TX-23 (open after scandal, D ~1 in 5) · TX-34, TX-28 D incumbents favored to hold. Texas Latino Trump approval 44% → 32% (UT poll) |
| Florida (R) | 4 | ~0 | FL-14 Castor & FL-25 Moskowitz slight favorites in Trump+9–10 seats · FL-9 Soto D ~2 in 5 · FL-22 competitive |
| Ohio (R) | 2 | ~0 | OH-9 Kaptur ~2 in 3 to hold · OH-1 Landsman favored · OH-13 got bluer |
| North Carolina (R) | 1 | ~D+1 | NC-1 Davis 51% in Trump+12 seat · NC-11 (R open) in play |
| LA / TN / AL (R, post-Callais) | 3 | ~R+3 | No backfire — GOP’s only near-sure gains (LA-6, TN-9, AL-2) |
| Missouri (R) | 1 | 0 | Map struck by courts |
| California Prop 50 (D) | 5 | ~D+4 | CA-1, CA-6, CA-38 likely D gains; CA-22 Valadao the holdout (~1 in 4); R long shots CA-13, CA-45, CA-48 🏠 |
| Utah (court) | 1 | D+1 | Safe Salt Lake D seat |
Ranked — closest first
Ranked by consensus score across 10 forecasters (Cook, Inside, Sabato, Economist, Split Ticket, DDHQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox, Silver, RCP): Toss-up 0, Tilt ±0.5, Lean ±1, Likely ±2, Safe ±3. + favors D, − favors R. Ratings column = Cook / Sabato / Inside. Polls marked (D)/(R) are partisan.
Closest (|score| < 0.5)
Likely/Solid RLean RToss-upLean DLikely/Solid D
| # | District | Race (D vs R; * = incumbent) | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VA-1 | Shannon Taylor vs Rob Wittman* | R | +0.10 | Toss / Toss / Lean R | WaPo 9/28: Taylor 50–46 | |
| 2 | ME-2 | Matt Dunlap vs Paul LePage (open) | D | −0.10 | Lean R ×3 | Tulchin (D) 10/14: Dunlap 50–46 | Golden retiring; R pickup target |
| 3 | FL-22 | Pia Dandiya vs Casey Askar (open) | new | +0.15 | Toss / Toss / Tilt R | PVI R+4 | New FL seat |
| 4 | MI-4 | Sean McCann vs Bill Huizenga* | R | +0.15 | Toss / Toss / Tilt R | PVI R+3 | |
| 5 | TX-35 | Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz (open) | new | −0.20 | Toss / Toss / Lean R | WaPo 10/19: R 48–47 | New TX seat |
| 6 | TX-15 | Bobby Pulido vs Monica De La Cruz* | R | +0.20 | Toss ×3 | TSU 10/16: Pulido 51–44 | Redrawn |
| 7 | PA-1 | Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick* | R | −0.20 | Lean R ×3 | GSG (D) 10/8: 46–46 | D-leaning seat, R incumbent |
| 8 | MT-1 | Sam Forstag vs Aaron Flint (open) | R | −0.25 | Toss / Lean R / Tilt R | Split early-Oct polls (±1–3) | Zinke retiring |
| 9 | OH-7 | Brian Poindexter vs Max Miller* | R | +0.40 | Toss ×3 | PVI R+5 | New OH map |
| 10 | KY-6 | Zach Dembo vs Ralph Alvarado (open) | R | −0.45 | Toss / Lean R / Tilt R | 3 D polls: Dembo +3 to +9 | Barr running for Senate |
Very close (0.5–0.9)
| # | District | Race | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | IA-2 | Lindsay James vs Joe Mitchell (open) | R | +0.50 | Toss / Lean D / Toss | Emerson 10/14: James 50–47 | Hinson running for Senate |
| 12 | NC-1 | Don Davis* vs Laurie Buckhout | D | +0.60 | Toss / Lean D / Toss | Polls range R+1 to D+10 | Map made redder |
| 13 | OH-9 | Marcy Kaptur* vs Derek Merrin | D | +0.60 | Toss ×3 | DCCC: 48–48 | Map made redder; 2024 rematch |
| 14 | WI-1 | Mitchell Berman vs Bryan Steil* | R | −0.60 | Lean R / Lean R / Likely R | Impact (D) 10/1: Berman 48–47 | |
| 15 | PA-8 | Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan* | R | +0.65 | Toss / Toss / Tilt D | PVI R+4 | |
| 16 | CO-5 | Jessica Killin vs Jeff Crank* | R | −0.65 | Lean R / Lean R / Tilt R | PVI R+5 | |
| 17 | FL-14 | Kathy Castor* vs Mike Beltran | D | +0.70 | Toss ×3 | PVI R+4 | Map made redder |
| 18 | NC-11 | Jamie Ager vs Jennifer Balkcom (open) | R | +0.70 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI R+5 | Edwards withdrew after renomination |
| 19 | NY-17 | Cait Conley vs Mike Lawler* | R | +0.70 | Toss ×3 | Emerson 9/29: Conley 48–46 | |
| 20 | MI-10 | Christina Hines vs Mike Bouchard Jr. (open) | R | +0.75 | Toss / Toss / Tilt R | PVI R+3 | James running for gov |
| 21 | MO-2 | Fred Wellman vs Ann Wagner* | R | −0.80 | Likely R / Lean R / Solid R | PVI R+4 | |
| 22 | FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz* vs Scott Singer | D | +0.90 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | NRS (R) 10/15: Singer 49–42 | Redrawn |
| 23 | MI-7 | William Lawrence vs Tom Barrett* | R | +0.90 | Toss ×3 | PVI EVEN | |
| 24 | MN-1 | Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad* | R | −0.90 | Lean R / Lean R / Likely R | SurveyUSA 10/12: Johnson 46–44 | |
| 25 | TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout vs Brandon Herrera (open) | R | −0.90 | Lean R / Lean R / Likely R | PVI R+7 | Gonzales resigned; indep. Mendoza running |
Competitive (1.0–1.5)
| # | District | Race | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez* vs Eric Flores | D | +1.10 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI R+3 | Redrawn |
| 27 | WI-3 | Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden* | R | +1.10 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI R+3 | Rematch |
| 28 | AZ-2 | Jonathan Nez vs Eli Crane* | R | −1.10 | Lean R / Likely R / Likely R | PVI R+7 | |
| 29 | FL-13 | Leela Gray vs Anna Paulina Luna* | R | −1.10 | Lean R / Likely R / Lean R | PVI R+6 | |
| 30 | SC-1 | Nancy Lacore vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (open) | R | −1.10 | Lean R ×3 | co/efficient (R): R+6 | Mace running for gov |
| 31 | CO-8 | Manny Rutinel vs Gabe Evans* | R | +1.20 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI EVEN | |
| 32 | AL-2 | Shomari Figures* vs Rhett Marques | D | −1.20 | Lean R ×3 | PVI R+7 | Map made redder; R pickup |
| 33 | NV-2 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson vs David Flippo (open) | R | −1.20 | Lean R ×3 | PVI R+7 | Amodei retiring |
| 34 | OH-15 | Don Leonard vs Mike Carey* | R | −1.20 | Lean R / Likely R / Likely R | PVI R+5 | New OH map |
| 35 | CA-22 | Randy Villegas vs David Valadao* | R | +1.30 | Toss / Lean D / Toss | KVPR 10/16: Villegas +4–5 | Prop 50 made bluer |
| 36 | PA-10 | Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry* | R | +1.30 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | Susquehanna (R) 10/11: Stelson 49–46 | Rematch |
| 37 | VA-2 | Elaine Luria vs Jen Kiggans* | R | +1.30 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | CNU 10/10: Luria 46–43 | |
| 38 | FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez vs María Elvira Salazar* | R | −1.30 | Lean R ×3 | PVI R+6 | |
| 39 | IA-3 | Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach Nunn* | R | +1.35 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+2 | |
| 40 | NJ-7 | Rebecca Bennett vs Tom Kean Jr.* | R | +1.35 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI EVEN | |
| 41 | PA-7 | Bob Brooks vs Ryan Mackenzie* | R | +1.35 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+1 | |
| 42 | WA-3 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez* vs John Braun | D | +1.40 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | Polls split ±1 | |
| 43 | CO-4 | Eileen Laubacher vs Lauren Boebert* | R | −1.40 | Lean R / Lean R / Solid R | PVI R+9 | |
| 44 | NY-21 | Blake Gendebien vs Anthony Constantino (open) | R | −1.40 | Lean R ×3 | Siena 10/6: Gendebien 46–42 | Stefanik retiring |
| 45 | AZ-1 | Amish Shah vs Jay Feely (open) | R | +1.45 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+1 | Schweikert running for gov |
| 46 | IA-1 | Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | R | +1.45 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | Wavefield 45–29 (anomalous) | |
| 47 | AZ-6 | JoAnna Mendoza vs Juan Ciscomani* | R | +1.50 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI EVEN | |
| 48 | AK-AL | Eric Hafner vs Nick Begich III* | R | −1.50 | Lean R / Likely R / Likely R | NYT/Siena 10/1: Begich 47, Hafner 8 | Main challenger may be an independent — unverified |
| 49 | VA-5 | Tom Perriello vs John McGuire* | R | −1.50 | Likely R / Lean R / Likely R | WaPo 9/28: McGuire 51–45 |
Leaning (1.5+)
| # | District | Race | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | NM-2 | Gabe Vasquez* vs Greg Cunningham | D | +1.65 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | R&P 10/9: Vasquez 48–44 | |
| 51 | TX-28 | Henry Cuellar* vs Tano Tijerina | D | +1.65 | Likely D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+3 | Redrawn |
| 52 | CA-48 🏠 | Marni von Wilpert vs Jim Desmond (open) | R | +1.75 | Lean D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI D+2 | Prop 50 made bluer; Issa retiring |
| 53 | OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker vs Mike Turner* | R | −1.80 | Lean R / Likely R / Solid R | PVI R+4 | |
| 54 | OH-1 | Greg Landsman* vs Eric Conroy | D | +1.85 | Likely D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI R+1 | New OH map |
| 55 | NH-1 | Stefany Shaheen vs Anthony DiLorenzo (open) | D | +2.00 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | St. Anselm 10/20: Shaheen 46–42 | Pappas running for Senate |
| 56 | NE-2 | Denise Powell vs Brinker Harding (open) | R | +2.10 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | NPA (R) 10/5: Powell 50–38 | Bacon retiring — likely D flip |
| 57 | CA-13 | Adam Gray* vs Kevin Lincoln | D | +2.15 | Likely D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI D+2 | |
| 58 | NV-1 | Dina Titus* vs Carrie Buck | D | +2.20 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | PVI D+2 | |
| 59 | NY-3 | Tom Suozzi* vs Mike LiPetri | D | +2.20 | Likely D / Lean D / Lean D | PVI EVEN | |
| 60 | NV-3 | Susie Lee* vs Martin O’Donnell | D | +2.30 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | PVI D+1 | |
| 61 | NY-4 | Laura Gillen* vs Jeanine Driscoll | D | +2.35 | Likely D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI D+2 | |
| 62 | CA-6 | Richard Pan vs Kevin Kiley* (I) | I | +2.60 | Solid D / Likely D / Lean D | PVI D+5 | Kiley left GOP |
Issues by race (closest 25 + CA)
Cross-cutting: Medicaid / ACA-subsidy cuts (OBBB vote) · affordability & gas · tariffs (farm & manufacturing) · ICE raids · data centers · incumbent scandal · redraw shifts.
| District | Issues | On the ballot |
|---|---|---|
| VA-1 | Wittman’s OBBB vote; Medicaid & ACA cuts; private equity in health care | Q1 (abortion rights) · Q2 (repeal same-sex marriage ban) · Q3 (felon voting rights) |
| ME-2 | MaineCare vetoes; ACA subsidies; heating oil; LePage breaking with Trump on tariffs & Iran | — |
| FL-22 | Askar wants ACA repealed; cost of living; Trump + DeSantis endorsed Askar | — |
| MI-4 | Cost of living; insider trading; Huizenga’s tax-cut & border record | Proposal 2 (utility/contractor donation ban) · Proposal 1 (constitutional convention) |
| TX-35 | Affordability; tariffs hitting small business; immigration; drawn from Casar’s D seat to Trump+9 | — |
| TX-15 | Pulido’s bandmate a convicted sex offender; border & guns (Pulido centrist); Social Security | — |
| PA-1 | Medicaid cuts (Fitzpatrick voted no on final bill); affordability; disputed “defund police” ads | — |
| MT-1 | Affordability (“Montana dream”); “socialist lobbyist” attacks on Forstag; Flint’s Trump ties | CI-133 (protect initiatives) · CI-132 (nonpartisan judges) · I-194 (corporate spending ban) |
| OH-7 | Max Miller abuse allegations by ex-wife; both OH GOP senators urged him to quit | Issue 3 (photo ID) |
| KY-6 | Affordability & health care vs border, fentanyl, tax cuts (Trump-endorsed Alvarado) | — |
| IA-2 | Tariffs vs new steel plant; Deere/Whirlpool jobs to Mexico; Medicaid cuts; data centers | — |
| NC-1 | Redraw to R+8 cut out Davis’s home county; affordability; border & defense | Photo-ID amendment · income-tax cap · property-tax limit |
| OH-9 | Redder redraw; Medicare/Medicaid claims (fact-checked misleading); prices; trans-sports votes | Issue 3 (photo ID) |
| WI-1 | Cost of living; OBBB Medicaid cuts; tariffs on farm exports | — |
| PA-8 | Bresnahan’s ~650 stock trades despite trading-ban pledge; Medicaid; Scranton hospital troubles | — |
| CO-5 | Space Command moved out of Colorado Springs (Crank accused of not fighting it) | Amd 86 (redistricting limits) · Amd 87 vs Prop 136 (income tax) · 134/135 (trans) |
| FL-14 | Redraw to Trump+10; “MAGA Mike” Beltran vs Castor’s 20 years | — |
| NC-11 | Edwards quit over harassment report; Helene recovery; data-center/AI moratorium | Photo-ID amendment · income-tax cap · property-tax limit |
| NY-17 | ICE & sanctuary; bail reform; antisemitism; Lawler ties Conley to Mamdani, she ties him to Trump | — |
| MI-10 | Border & “socialism” vs working families; Hines’s prosecutor record | Proposal 2 (utility/contractor donation ban) · Proposal 1 (constitutional convention) |
| MO-2 | Wagner backs Iran war; cost of living & health care; Wagner outspending ~6:1 | Amd 3 (abortion repeal) · Prop A (KC map) · Amd 6 (initiatives) |
| FL-25 | Trump+9 redraw; Israel & antisemitism; Moskowitz’s stock trading; Social Security | — |
| MI-7 | Tariffs; gas; data centers; health costs; Barrett attacks Lawrence’s DSA ties | Proposal 2 (utility/contractor donation ban) · Proposal 1 (constitutional convention) |
| MN-1 | Tariffs in farm district; Finstad holds no in-person town halls; affordability | — |
| TX-23 | Open after Gonzales sex scandal; Herrera’s extremism; guns vs health care & abortion; indep. Mendoza | — |
| CA-22 | Medicaid cuts (>half district enrolled; Valadao voted for OBBB); ICE raids; Prop 50 shift | Props 39 (voter ID) · 40/41/42 (billionaire tax fight) · 45 (CEQA) — see CA props page |
| CA-48 🏠 | Prop 50 redraw (now Harris+3); ICE enforcement; Trump referendum vs Desmond’s local-service pitch; housing | Props 39 (voter ID) · 40/41/42 (billionaire tax fight) · 45 (CEQA) — see CA props page |
Likely D (not above): CA-21, CA-45, IN-1, MI-3, MI-8, MN-2, NV-4, NH-2, NJ-9, NY-19, OH-13, OR-5, VA-7 Likely R (not above): AR-2, CO-3, FL-7, FL-9 (D-held → flip), FL-12, FL-16, IN-5, KS-2, MD-1, NE-1, NJ-2, NY-1, NC-3, NC-13, TX-9 (new), WA-5, WY-AL Already flipped on paper: TN-9 (D → Solid R, map split Memphis)
Realism check: see 2026 Midterms — Realistic Forecasts & Nate Silver.
Caveats
- Cook verified via Oct 23 coverage (totals match). Sabato & Inside ratings via Wikipedia only.
- Indicators use 2026 Cook PVI (new lines) where no poll; 2024 presidential margins on new lines not gathered.
- Missouri: 2022 map in use (courts struck 2025 map; Axios & DDHQ agree).
- Issues from local press via search summaries; some pre-October (OH-7, NC-1, PA-8, FL-14). DDHQ backfire odds are from Sep 14 — likely more D-favorable now.
Sources
- Wikipedia — 2026 House election ratings (10 forecasters, dated Oct 13–23; accessed Oct 24)
- Wikipedia — 2026 House elections · 2025–26 redistricting
- Forbes — Cook: GOP chances “all but evaporated” (Oct 23) · The Hill — Cook moves 19 seats
- PollingSource — district polls (fetched Oct 24) · Emerson NY-17 · KVPR CA-22
- Silver Bulletin generic ballot · DDHQ generic ballot · DDHQ House forecast
- Newsweek — Silver 93.1% (Oct 8) · Kalshi (Oct 21)
- Washington Examiner — redistricting tally · DDHQ redistricting analysis · Midterm Project tracker
- Backfire: Axios — GOP redistricting boost shrinking (Oct 20) · Reuters — Texas-sized Latino problem (Sep 24) · NPR — Texas started the redistricting war (Oct 13)