2026 House — Competitive Races
Snapshot: 2026-11-02 (election eve; first written 2026-10-24). Election: Tue Nov 3. 🏠 = Fred’s district (CA-48)
Archived 2026-11-07. This page is an election-eve snapshot and will not be updated further. The closing update below gives the results as of Nov 7; the full results are in the sources named there.
Closing update (2026-11-07): Democrats have the House, 254 to 162 with 19 races uncalled
- Count: Democrats 254, Republicans 162, 19 uncalled (AP via Yahoo, Nov 7). CBS estimates a final range of 251 to 268 Democratic seats. NBC’s estimate is D 259, R 176 on a different (projected) basis, so the two are not comparable.
- Flips: Democrats flipped at least 24 Republican-held seats; Republicans flipped none (CNBC, Nov 4). Democrats lead the national House vote by nearly 13 points (Cook, via Yahoo).
- 🏠 CA-48 (Fred’s district): called for Marni von Wilpert (D), 106,972 votes (59.3%) to Jim Desmond (R) 73,502 (40.7%), per California Secretary of State semi-official results as of Nov 6 and an AP projection. An open seat after Issa retired.
- Still uncalled (partial list; I could not find all 19): CO-4, Eileen Laubacher (D) leads Lauren Boebert (R) 48.8% to 47.9% (3,172 votes) with 97% counted; Colorado counties have until Nov 13. CNBC named ME-2 as a possible Republican flip.
- Versus the forecasts: Decision Desk HQ projected 241 Democratic seats and Silver Bulletin gave Democrats about 93 to 95% to win the House. The result beat the projection. See 2026 Midterms — Realistic Forecasts & Nate Silver.
Sources: search summaries and page fetches by Claude on 2026-11-07 (AP counts via a Yahoo live blog and NBC/CBS/CNBC trackers; no AP page opened). Numbers move daily, so check AP for the latest.
Here’s why this matters
The House writes the budget and tax bills, and the majority controls investigations, subpoenas and impeachment.
- The majority is thin. Republicans hold 218 seats, exactly a majority. Democrats need a net gain of about 4 from today’s seats.
- The maps changed mid-decade. Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee and Alabama redrew for Republicans; California (Prop 50) and Utah went the other way. On paper that nets Republicans roughly 6–9 seats, but in a strong Democratic year several of the new GOP seats are competitive (see the backfire watch below).
- The forecasts agree here more than on the Senate. Every major model favors Democrats, from DDHQ 79% (Oct 26) to Silver ~93–95%; prediction markets sit at ~94–95% on election eve.
- Fred’s district is on the list. CA-48 is an open seat that Prop 50 made bluer.
Bottom line
- Now: 218 R – 214 D – 1 I (Kiley, CA-6, left GOP Mar 2026) – 2 vacant (FL-20 D, TX-23 R) as of Oct 24. Discrepancy: Yahoo News (Nov 2) says 219 R – 214 D plus one independent who caucuses with Republicans, and “Democrats need a net gain of three”; DeFi Rate also says 3. Not reconciled; vacancies may have been filled or counted differently.
- Majority: 218. Dems need net +3 to +4 from today’s seats (sources differ, see below) — but redistricting adds roughly 6–9 more on paper.
- Changed since Oct 30 (as of Nov 2): markets firmed up (Kalshi 93.8¢, Polymarket 95¢ for D; Kalshi was ~91% a week earlier); Cook made another round of moves (5 more ratings on Mon Nov 2 per Yahoo/Cook) and now projects D flips of 12–25 seats, up to 240; Silver’s generic ballot D+9. No new DDHQ or Silver House % found (see below).
- Forecasts: Silver Bulletin FLIPR D 93.1% / 238.7 seats (Oct 8 run, Newsweek; page updated Oct 30 but paywalled, so no newer figure found) · DDHQ D 79%, 238 seats (Oct 26) · FiftyPlusOne median 230 D seats, range 211–253 (search snippet, undated) · Split Ticket not found · Markets (Nov 2, 7:04 PM ET, DeFi Rate): Kalshi D 93.8¢, Polymarket D 95¢ (R 6¢) · Kalshi House seat-count market avg 238.3 D seats, House control 90.6% (Oct 26, snippet)
- Cook: per Yahoo News (Nov 2): D flips 12 to 25, “as many as 240 seats,” “largest majority since 2009.” 89 competitive seats: 18 Toss-up, 18 Lean D, 18 Lean R, 18 Likely D, 17 Likely R. Of 58 competitive GOP-held seats, 14 Toss-up and 13 Lean D; of 31 competitive D-held, 4 Toss-up. 80 ratings moved toward D over recent weeks. (Search snippet of a Hill story, ~Oct 30–31: 227–240 seats; a DeFi Rate page quotes Cook as D +9 to +19 → 224–234, which looks stale or a different cut.)
- Generic ballot: Silver D+9 (cited Nov 2, Yahoo) · I&I/TIPP likely voters D 52–42 (DeFi Rate page, Nov 2). Trump net approval about −21 (59/38), per Yahoo.
- Balance of power (markets, Nov 2): D both chambers ~74% · D House / R Senate ~19% · R House / D Senate ~0.6% · R both ~5.2%.
Election night update (2026-11-03, ~7 PM PT) — PROVISIONAL
Source: search snippets of live trackers (CNN, CNBC, CBS, MS NOW, Florida Politics, NBC). No page opened; partial counts; verify against AP or a live tracker before relying on any figure.
- Direction: CNBC headline “blue wave hits House”; CNBC projects Democrats at least 205 seats, MS NOW floor D 210 / R 160. CNN: top Republican sources fear early returns point to a Democratic sweep of both chambers. This matches the forecasts (D ~230–240), not a surprise.
- Called for Democrats in Trump-won seats: KY-6, Zach Dembo (Trump +15 in 2024, per CNN); CO-8, Manny Rutinel over Rep. Gabe Evans (R). KY-6 is the kind of seat that signals a wave.
- Flipped: NC-11, Jamie Ager (open GOP seat, not an incumbent defeat).
- Held: Deborah Ross, Valerie Foushee (NC); Jared Moskowitz (FL-25), AP call 8:07 PM ET, about 51.2–51.4% to Scott Singer’s 46.3–46.7% with ~97% in. He moved from FL-23 into the redrawn, more competitive FL-25 and won a third term anyway, a point for the “gerrymander backfire” watch below.
- Still close: FL-13 Luna (R) and FL-27 Salazar (R) both led by under 1 point right after polls closed. No result found.
- No confirmed House Republican incumbent upset found yet (one search hit was a 2024 story).
- Candidate to watch, added by Fred: Melat Kiros (D, CO-1, Denver). A democratic socialist (Justice Democrats-backed) who beat 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette in the June 30 primary by 20,000+ votes. Not a competitive seat in November: early count 78% Kiros, 14% Christy Peterson (R), 6% Shimon Blau (I), and the call came the same night. KKTV reports she’d be the first Black woman to represent Colorado in Congress. Sworn in Jan 3, 2027. Sources: CPR, KKTV, Colorado Newsline. Search snippets only; not opened.
- Not checked: CA races (polls close 8 PM PT), CA-48 (Fred’s district), the 9 redrawn states except FL, and the TX new seats.
Election night update 2 (2026-11-03, ~9 PM PT) — PROVISIONAL
Source: search snippets (Patch, NBC San Diego, CBS live blog, CalMatters). No page opened. Verify with AP or the CA Secretary of State.
- Control: Patch and the CBS live-blog headline report that Democrats have won the House majority. Exact seat count not found.
- 🏠 CA-48 (Fred’s district, open, Issa retiring): von Wilpert (D) 59.4 / Desmond (R) 40.6 at ~47% counted (NBC San Diego). Partial; a comfortable early lead.
- CA-22 (Valadao, R, redrawn bluer): no count found. CA-40 (Kim vs. Calvert, member vs. member): one Republican incumbent loses; no result found. CA-41: no result found.
- Prop 50 context: approved 64.4% in 2025 (Secretary of State). Still to check: how the CA map performed.
Wednesday update (2026-11-04, morning): provisional, superseded by the closing update above
Source: search snippets (NBC, Axios, Time, PublicSource). No page opened.
- Control: NBC says Democrats reached 218 and its Decision Desk projects at least 258 seats (an ~81-seat margin on its page). Axios says AP projects Democrats control both chambers. Time (written Tuesday evening) said AP had not yet called the House, so the AP call timing is unconfirmed. Our pre-election tracker had ~229 D (CBS), so this is a large overshoot.
- No individual race list, CA-22/CA-40/CA-41 results, or gerrymander-backfire results found yet.
Snapshot history
Key numbers each update — so we can see how they track.
| Date | DDHQ / Silver Bulletin House D odds | Proj. D seats | Generic ballot | Cook Toss-ups | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 79% / 95% | ~237 | D+7.4–8.9 | 17 | Initial snapshot |
| 2026-10-30 | DDHQ 79% (Oct 26) / “overwhelming favorites” (Silver, no % in text) | DDHQ 238 (Oct 26) | not found | 17 (Cook, Oct 23; no newer) | Unchanged from Oct 24. |
| 2026-11-02 | Kalshi 93.8¢ / Polymarket 95¢ (DDHQ and Silver: no newer % found; DDHQ last 79% Oct 26, Silver 93.1% Oct 8) | DDHQ 238 (Oct 26); Kalshi avg 238.3 (Oct 26); Cook: up to 240 | Silver D+9 | 18 (Cook, per Yahoo Nov 2) | Cook added ~5 more moves toward D Mon Nov 2 and ~12 around Oct 30; markets up from ~91% to ~94–95%. Cook toss-up count 17 → 18 is from one article; The Hill snippet still said 17. |
| 2026-11-03 (eve) | not refreshed | CNBC floor D 205+; MS NOW floor D 210 | not refreshed | not refreshed | Election night, partial returns from search snippets: wave signs (KY-6, CO-8 D calls), Moskowitz holds FL-25. See the section above. |
| 2026-11-03 (9 PM PT) | not refreshed | not found | not refreshed | not refreshed | Patch and CBS headlines: Democrats win House. CA-48 von Wilpert 59.4–40.6 at ~47% in. See “Election night update 2”. |
| 2026-10-28 | not refreshed / ~95% (“strong favorites”) | ~237 (unchanged) | not found | 17 (Cook, Oct 23: 186 Solid D, 17 Likely D, 16 Lean D, 17 Toss, 17 Lean R, 13 Likely R, 168 Solid R) | Cook moved 19 seats toward D on Oct 23; only 8 of the 19 identified. Partial refresh. |
Redistricting 2025–26 (lines in effect for 2026)
| State | Shift | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | R+5 | New TX-9, TX-32, TX-35; SCOTUS allowed (Dec 2025) |
| California (Prop 50) | D+4–5 | CA-1/3/22/41/48 redrawn; Calvert & Kim forced together (CA-40) |
| Florida | R+3–4 | New FL-22; FL-9, FL-14 redder (May 2026) |
| Ohio | R+2 | OH-9, OH-13 |
| North Carolina | R+1 | NC-1 redder |
| Louisiana / Tennessee / Alabama | R+1 each | Post-Callais VRA rollback; TN-9 (Memphis) split; AL-2 now Lean R |
| Utah | D+1 | Court map, new Salt Lake D seat |
| Missouri, Virginia | 0 | MO 2025 map blocked (SCOTUS stay Sep 25); VA amendment struck May 8 |
| Net | ~R+6 to R+9 | DDHQ argues effective net near zero in this environment. Cook (Nov 2, Yahoo): R gain 9, D gain 5, net R+4 on paper |
Gerrymander backfire watch
Short version: the GOP drew for ~15–16 seats; realistic net now is low single digits, maybe ~zero. DDHQ (Sep 14) has Dems netting ~+2 across the 9 redrawn states; GOP strategists privately fear the map war nets them one seat (Axios, Oct 20). Silver (early 2026): heavy gerrymanders risk “dummymanders” in a big D year.
| State (drew) | Targeted | Realistic now | Backfire / shortfall seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas (R) | 5 | ~R+2 | TX-15 (R seat made safer → Toss-up, D ~1 in 3) · TX-35 (new, D ~1 in 3) · TX-23 (open after scandal, D ~1 in 5) · TX-34, TX-28 D incumbents favored to hold. Texas Latino Trump approval 44% → 32% (UT poll) |
| Florida (R) | 4 | ~0 | FL-14 Castor & FL-25 Moskowitz slight favorites in Trump+9–10 seats · FL-9 Soto D ~2 in 5 · FL-22 competitive |
| Ohio (R) | 2 | ~0 | OH-9 Kaptur ~2 in 3 to hold · OH-1 Landsman favored · OH-13 got bluer |
| North Carolina (R) | 1 | ~D+1 | NC-1 Davis 51% in Trump+12 seat · NC-11 (R open) in play |
| LA / TN / AL (R, post-Callais) | 3 | ~R+3 | No backfire — GOP’s only near-sure gains (LA-6, TN-9, AL-2) |
| Missouri (R) | 1 | 0 | Map struck by courts |
| California Prop 50 (D) | 5 | ~D+4 | CA-1, CA-6, CA-38 likely D gains; CA-22 Valadao the holdout (~1 in 4); R long shots CA-13, CA-45, CA-48 🏠 |
| Utah (court) | 1 | D+1 | Safe Salt Lake D seat |
Ranked — closest first
Ranked by consensus score across 10 forecasters (Cook, Inside, Sabato, Economist, Split Ticket, DDHQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox, Silver, RCP): Toss-up 0, Tilt ±0.5, Lean ±1, Likely ±2, Safe ±3. + favors D, − favors R. Ratings column = Cook / Sabato / Inside. Polls marked (D)/(R) are partisan.
Closest (|score| < 0.5)
Likely/Solid RLean RToss-upLean DLikely/Solid D
| # | District | Race (D vs R; * = incumbent) | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VA-1 | Shannon Taylor vs Rob Wittman* | R | +0.10 | Toss / Toss / Lean R | WaPo 9/28: Taylor 50–46 | |
| 2 | ME-2 | Matt Dunlap vs Paul LePage (open) | D | −0.10 | Lean R ×3 | Tulchin (D) 10/14: Dunlap 50–46 | Golden retiring; R pickup target |
| 3 | FL-22 | Pia Dandiya vs Casey Askar (open) | new | +0.15 | Toss / Toss / Tilt R | PVI R+4 | New FL seat |
| 4 | MI-4 | Sean McCann vs Bill Huizenga* | R | +0.15 | Toss / Toss / Tilt R | PVI R+3 | |
| 5 | TX-35 | Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz (open) | new | −0.20 | Toss / Toss / Lean R | WaPo 10/19: R 48–47 | New TX seat |
| 6 | TX-15 | Bobby Pulido vs Monica De La Cruz* | R | +0.20 | Toss ×3 | TSU 10/16: Pulido 51–44 | Redrawn |
| 7 | PA-1 | Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick* | R | −0.20 | Lean R ×3 | GSG (D) 10/8: 46–46 | D-leaning seat, R incumbent |
| 8 | MT-1 | Sam Forstag vs Aaron Flint (open) | R | −0.25 | Toss / Lean R / Tilt R | Split early-Oct polls (±1–3) | Zinke retiring |
| 9 | OH-7 | Brian Poindexter vs Max Miller* | R | +0.40 | Toss ×3 | PVI R+5 | New OH map |
| 10 | KY-6 | Zach Dembo vs Ralph Alvarado (open) | R | −0.45 | Toss / Lean R / Tilt R | 3 D polls: Dembo +3 to +9 | Barr running for Senate |
Very close (0.5–0.9)
| # | District | Race | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | IA-2 | Lindsay James vs Joe Mitchell (open) | R | +0.50 | Toss / Lean D / Toss | Emerson 10/14: James 50–47 | Hinson running for Senate |
| 12 | NC-1 | Don Davis* vs Laurie Buckhout | D | +0.60 | Toss / Lean D / Toss | Polls range R+1 to D+10 | Map made redder |
| 13 | OH-9 | Marcy Kaptur* vs Derek Merrin | D | +0.60 | Toss ×3 | DCCC: 48–48 | Map made redder; 2024 rematch |
| 14 | WI-1 | Mitchell Berman vs Bryan Steil* | R | −0.60 | Lean R / Lean R / Likely R | Impact (D) 10/1: Berman 48–47 | |
| 15 | PA-8 | Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan* | R | +0.65 | Toss / Toss / Tilt D | PVI R+4 | |
| 16 | CO-5 | Jessica Killin vs Jeff Crank* | R | −0.65 | Lean R / Lean R / Tilt R | PVI R+5 | |
| 17 | FL-14 | Kathy Castor* vs Mike Beltran | D | +0.70 | Toss ×3 | PVI R+4 | Map made redder |
| 18 | NC-11 | Jamie Ager vs Jennifer Balkcom (open) | R | +0.70 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI R+5 | Edwards withdrew after renomination |
| 19 | NY-17 | Cait Conley vs Mike Lawler* | R | +0.70 | Toss ×3 | Emerson 9/29: Conley 48–46 | |
| 20 | MI-10 | Christina Hines vs Mike Bouchard Jr. (open) | R | +0.75 | Toss / Toss / Tilt R | PVI R+3 | James running for gov |
| 21 | MO-2 | Fred Wellman vs Ann Wagner* | R | −0.80 | Likely R / Lean R / Solid R | PVI R+4 | |
| 22 | FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz* vs Scott Singer | D | +0.90 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | NRS (R) 10/15: Singer 49–42 | Redrawn |
| 23 | MI-7 | William Lawrence vs Tom Barrett* | R | +0.90 | Toss ×3 | PVI EVEN | |
| 24 | MN-1 | Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad* | R | −0.90 | Lean R / Lean R / Likely R | SurveyUSA 10/12: Johnson 46–44 | |
| 25 | TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout vs Brandon Herrera (open) | R | −0.90 | Lean R / Lean R / Likely R | PVI R+7 | Gonzales resigned; indep. Mendoza running |
Competitive (1.0–1.5)
| # | District | Race | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez* vs Eric Flores | D | +1.10 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI R+3 | Redrawn |
| 27 | WI-3 | Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden* | R | +1.10 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI R+3 | Rematch |
| 28 | AZ-2 | Jonathan Nez vs Eli Crane* | R | −1.10 | Lean R / Likely R / Likely R | PVI R+7 | |
| 29 | FL-13 | Leela Gray vs Anna Paulina Luna* | R | −1.10 | Lean R / Likely R / Lean R | PVI R+6 | |
| 30 | SC-1 | Nancy Lacore vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (open) | R | −1.10 | Lean R ×3 | co/efficient (R): R+6 | Mace running for gov |
| 31 | CO-8 | Manny Rutinel vs Gabe Evans* | R | +1.20 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI EVEN | |
| 32 | AL-2 | Shomari Figures* vs Rhett Marques | D | −1.20 | Lean R ×3 | PVI R+7 | Map made redder; R pickup |
| 33 | NV-2 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson vs David Flippo (open) | R | −1.20 | Lean R ×3 | PVI R+7 | Amodei retiring |
| 34 | OH-15 | Don Leonard vs Mike Carey* | R | −1.20 | Lean R / Likely R / Likely R | PVI R+5 | New OH map |
| 35 | CA-22 | Randy Villegas vs David Valadao* | R | +1.30 | Toss / Lean D / Toss | KVPR 10/16: Villegas +4–5 | Prop 50 made bluer |
| 36 | PA-10 | Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry* | R | +1.30 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | Susquehanna (R) 10/11: Stelson 49–46 | Rematch |
| 37 | VA-2 | Elaine Luria vs Jen Kiggans* | R | +1.30 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | CNU 10/10: Luria 46–43 | |
| 38 | FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez vs María Elvira Salazar* | R | −1.30 | Lean R ×3 | PVI R+6 | |
| 39 | IA-3 | Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach Nunn* | R | +1.35 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+2 | |
| 40 | NJ-7 | Rebecca Bennett vs Tom Kean Jr.* | R | +1.35 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI EVEN | |
| 41 | PA-7 | Bob Brooks vs Ryan Mackenzie* | R | +1.35 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+1 | |
| 42 | WA-3 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez* vs John Braun | D | +1.40 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | Polls split ±1 | |
| 43 | CO-4 | Eileen Laubacher vs Lauren Boebert* | R | −1.40 | Lean R / Lean R / Solid R | PVI R+9 | |
| 44 | NY-21 | Blake Gendebien vs Anthony Constantino (open) | R | −1.40 | Lean R ×3 | Siena 10/6: Gendebien 46–42 | Stefanik retiring |
| 45 | AZ-1 | Amish Shah vs Jay Feely (open) | R | +1.45 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+1 | Schweikert running for gov |
| 46 | IA-1 | Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | R | +1.45 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | Wavefield 45–29 (anomalous) | |
| 47 | AZ-6 | JoAnna Mendoza vs Juan Ciscomani* | R | +1.50 | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | PVI EVEN | |
| 48 | AK-AL | Eric Hafner vs Nick Begich III* | R | −1.50 | Lean R / Likely R / Likely R | NYT/Siena 10/1: Begich 47, Hafner 8 | Main challenger may be an independent — unverified |
| 49 | VA-5 | Tom Perriello vs John McGuire* | R | −1.50 | Likely R / Lean R / Likely R | WaPo 9/28: McGuire 51–45 |
Leaning (1.5+)
| # | District | Race | Held | Score | Ratings | Indicator | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | NM-2 | Gabe Vasquez* vs Greg Cunningham | D | +1.65 | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | R&P 10/9: Vasquez 48–44 | |
| 51 | TX-28 | Henry Cuellar* vs Tano Tijerina | D | +1.65 | Likely D / Lean D / Tilt D | PVI R+3 | Redrawn |
| 52 | CA-48 🏠 | Marni von Wilpert vs Jim Desmond (open) | R | +1.75 | Lean D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI D+2 | Prop 50 made bluer; Issa retiring |
| 53 | OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker vs Mike Turner* | R | −1.80 | Lean R / Likely R / Solid R | PVI R+4 | |
| 54 | OH-1 | Greg Landsman* vs Eric Conroy | D | +1.85 | Likely D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI R+1 | New OH map |
| 55 | NH-1 | Stefany Shaheen vs Anthony DiLorenzo (open) | D | +2.00 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | St. Anselm 10/20: Shaheen 46–42 | Pappas running for Senate |
| 56 | NE-2 | Denise Powell vs Brinker Harding (open) | R | +2.10 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | NPA (R) 10/5: Powell 50–38 | Bacon retiring — likely D flip |
| 57 | CA-13 | Adam Gray* vs Kevin Lincoln | D | +2.15 | Likely D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI D+2 | |
| 58 | NV-1 | Dina Titus* vs Carrie Buck | D | +2.20 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | PVI D+2 | |
| 59 | NY-3 | Tom Suozzi* vs Mike LiPetri | D | +2.20 | Likely D / Lean D / Lean D | PVI EVEN | |
| 60 | NV-3 | Susie Lee* vs Martin O’Donnell | D | +2.30 | Likely D / Likely D / Lean D | PVI D+1 | |
| 61 | NY-4 | Laura Gillen* vs Jeanine Driscoll | D | +2.35 | Likely D / Likely D / Tilt D | PVI D+2 | |
| 62 | CA-6 | Richard Pan vs Kevin Kiley* (I) | I | +2.60 | Solid D / Likely D / Lean D | PVI D+5 | Kiley left GOP |
Issues by race (closest 25 + CA)
Cross-cutting: Medicaid / ACA-subsidy cuts (OBBB vote) · affordability & gas · tariffs (farm & manufacturing) · ICE raids · data centers · incumbent scandal · redraw shifts.
| District | Issues | On the ballot |
|---|---|---|
| VA-1 | Wittman’s OBBB vote; Medicaid & ACA cuts; private equity in health care | Q1 (abortion rights) · Q2 (repeal same-sex marriage ban) · Q3 (felon voting rights) |
| ME-2 | MaineCare vetoes; ACA subsidies; heating oil; LePage breaking with Trump on tariffs & Iran | — |
| FL-22 | Askar wants ACA repealed; cost of living; Trump + DeSantis endorsed Askar | — |
| MI-4 | Cost of living; insider trading; Huizenga’s tax-cut & border record | Proposal 2 (utility/contractor donation ban) · Proposal 1 (constitutional convention) |
| TX-35 | Affordability; tariffs hitting small business; immigration; drawn from Casar’s D seat to Trump+9 | — |
| TX-15 | Pulido’s bandmate a convicted sex offender; border & guns (Pulido centrist); Social Security | — |
| PA-1 | Medicaid cuts (Fitzpatrick voted no on final bill); affordability; disputed “defund police” ads | — |
| MT-1 | Affordability (“Montana dream”); “socialist lobbyist” attacks on Forstag; Flint’s Trump ties | CI-133 (protect initiatives) · CI-132 (nonpartisan judges) · I-194 (corporate spending ban) |
| OH-7 | Max Miller abuse allegations by ex-wife; both OH GOP senators urged him to quit | Issue 3 (photo ID) |
| KY-6 | Affordability & health care vs border, fentanyl, tax cuts (Trump-endorsed Alvarado) | — |
| IA-2 | Tariffs vs new steel plant; Deere/Whirlpool jobs to Mexico; Medicaid cuts; data centers | — |
| NC-1 | Redraw to R+8 cut out Davis’s home county; affordability; border & defense | Photo-ID amendment · income-tax cap · property-tax limit |
| OH-9 | Redder redraw; Medicare/Medicaid claims (fact-checked misleading); prices; trans-sports votes | Issue 3 (photo ID) |
| WI-1 | Cost of living; OBBB Medicaid cuts; tariffs on farm exports | — |
| PA-8 | Bresnahan’s ~650 stock trades despite trading-ban pledge; Medicaid; Scranton hospital troubles | — |
| CO-5 | Space Command moved out of Colorado Springs (Crank accused of not fighting it) | Amd 86 (redistricting limits) · Amd 87 vs Prop 136 (income tax) · 134/135 (trans) |
| FL-14 | Redraw to Trump+10; “MAGA Mike” Beltran vs Castor’s 20 years | — |
| NC-11 | Edwards quit over harassment report; Helene recovery; data-center/AI moratorium | Photo-ID amendment · income-tax cap · property-tax limit |
| NY-17 | ICE & sanctuary; bail reform; antisemitism; Lawler ties Conley to Mamdani, she ties him to Trump | — |
| MI-10 | Border & “socialism” vs working families; Hines’s prosecutor record | Proposal 2 (utility/contractor donation ban) · Proposal 1 (constitutional convention) |
| MO-2 | Wagner backs Iran war; cost of living & health care; Wagner outspending ~6:1 | Amd 3 (abortion repeal) · Prop A (KC map) · Amd 6 (initiatives) |
| FL-25 | Trump+9 redraw; Israel & antisemitism; Moskowitz’s stock trading; Social Security | — |
| MI-7 | Tariffs; gas; data centers; health costs; Barrett attacks Lawrence’s DSA ties | Proposal 2 (utility/contractor donation ban) · Proposal 1 (constitutional convention) |
| MN-1 | Tariffs in farm district; Finstad holds no in-person town halls; affordability | — |
| TX-23 | Open after Gonzales sex scandal; Herrera’s extremism; guns vs health care & abortion; indep. Mendoza | — |
| CA-22 | Medicaid cuts (>half district enrolled; Valadao voted for OBBB); ICE raids; Prop 50 shift | Props 39 (voter ID) · 40/41/42 (billionaire tax fight) · 45 (CEQA) — see CA props page |
| CA-48 🏠 | Prop 50 redraw (now Harris+3); ICE enforcement; Trump referendum vs Desmond’s local-service pitch; housing | Props 39 (voter ID) · 40/41/42 (billionaire tax fight) · 45 (CEQA) — see CA props page |
Likely D (not above): CA-21, CA-45, IN-1, MI-3, MI-8, MN-2, NV-4, NH-2, NJ-9, NY-19, OH-13, OR-5, VA-7 Likely R (not above): AR-2, CO-3, FL-7, FL-9 (D-held → flip), FL-12, FL-16, IN-5, KS-2, MD-1, NE-1, NJ-2, NY-1, NC-3, NC-13, TX-9 (new), WA-5, WY-AL Already flipped on paper: TN-9 (D → Solid R, map split Memphis)
Realism check: see 2026 Midterms — Realistic Forecasts & Nate Silver.
Caveats
- 2026-11-02 refresh: Silver and DDHQ pages are paywalled / rate-limited; their latest House % could not be read. Sabato and Inside Elections final ratings were not found; the per-race ratings columns below still reflect Oct 13–23 data and were NOT updated for Cook’s Oct 30 and Nov 2 moves (individual races not identified except as listed in the Sources). No new district polls dated Oct 30–Nov 2 were found.
- Cook verified via Oct 23 coverage (totals match). Sabato & Inside ratings via Wikipedia only.
- Indicators use 2026 Cook PVI (new lines) where no poll; 2024 presidential margins on new lines not gathered.
- Missouri: 2022 map in use (courts struck 2025 map; Axios & DDHQ agree).
- Issues from local press via search summaries; some pre-October (OH-7, NC-1, PA-8, FL-14). DDHQ backfire odds are from Sep 14 — likely more D-favorable now.
Sources
- 2026-11-02 refresh: DeFi Rate — House control odds (fetched Nov 2, 7:04 PM ET; Kalshi/Polymarket, balance of power, TIPP poll) · Yahoo News — what to watch tomorrow (Nov 2; Cook ranges, counts, generic ballot, approval) · The Hill — Cook shifts more races (search snippet only, page blocked; 227–240) · Silver Bulletin House model (updated Oct 30, paywalled) · Kalshi — 238 seats (snippet, Oct 26)
- Wikipedia — 2026 House election ratings (10 forecasters, dated Oct 13–23; accessed Oct 24)
- Wikipedia — 2026 House elections · 2025–26 redistricting
- Forbes — Cook: GOP chances “all but evaporated” (Oct 23) · The Hill — Cook moves 19 seats
- PollingSource — district polls (fetched Oct 24) · Emerson NY-17 · KVPR CA-22
- Silver Bulletin generic ballot · DDHQ generic ballot · DDHQ House forecast
- Newsweek — Silver 93.1% (Oct 8) · Kalshi (Oct 21)
- Washington Examiner — redistricting tally · DDHQ redistricting analysis · Midterm Project tracker
- Backfire: Axios — GOP redistricting boost shrinking (Oct 20) · Reuters — Texas-sized Latino problem (Sep 24) · NPR — Texas started the redistricting war (Oct 13)