2026 Ballot Measures — National Watch List (outside CA)
Snapshot: 2026-10-24. Election: Tue Nov 3. California: see 2026 California Propositions — Watch List.
Here’s why this matters
Ballot measures let voters set policy directly on abortion, voter ID, district maps and taxes. They can also change who turns out for close races on the same ballot.
- Missouri is the epicenter. Amendment 3 would repeal the abortion rights voters approved in 2024, and Prop A decides whether the GOP map splitting Kansas City takes effect.
- The redistricting war is on the ballot in Missouri, Maryland and Colorado. The results shape future House seats.
- Direct democracy itself is on the ballot. North and South Dakota would raise the bar for amendments to 60%; Missouri and Montana would protect the initiative process. These get little attention, but they decide what future ballots can do.
- The turnout lever is real but modest. Research finds each initiative adds roughly 1–2 points of midterm turnout, mostly when the measure is contested and well-funded (see the evidence section below).
Bottom line
- Missouri is the epicenter. Amendment 3 (repeal 2024 abortion rights + ban trans care for minors) is a coin flip (43–44, SLU/YouGov Aug), and Prop A decides whether the GOP’s 2025 gerrymander that splits Kansas City takes effect (polls split three ways). Amendment 6 would lock in the result.
- Abortion is quieter than in 2022/2024: 4 measures. Three would protect abortion rights (VA Q1, NV Q6 second vote, ID Prop 1 in a deep-red state, polling 61%), and one would roll them back (MO Amd 3).
- Election-rules measures dominate the GOP side: photo-ID amendments in NV, OH, NC, AZ and CO (mail-ID number), plus “citizens-only voting” in 6 states. Those are mostly symbolic and poll well (NV Q7 65–24). They are the clearest test of Fred’s turnout-lever theory. On the progressive side the election measures are VA Q3 (felon voting rights) and MA Q4 (same-day registration).
- The redistricting war is on the ballot: MO Prop A, MD Q3 (a Democratic gerrymander enabler, losing 25–53 in UMBC’s Oct poll) and CO Amd 86 (GOP-backed block on a Democratic mid-decade redraw, needs 55%).
- Direct-democracy restrictions (ND M1 and SD Amd L, which raise the bar for amendments to 60%; UT’s 60% bar for tax initiatives; ID HJR 4) versus protections (MO Amd 6, MT CI-133). These are low-salience, and how they turn out will shape future cycles.
Snapshot history
| Date | Notes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Initial snapshot. Added Backed-by column; standardized outlook labels (Toss-up used as placeholder where no polling) |
Ranked — most critical first
Likely YesLeans YesToss-upLeans NoLikely No
| # | State | Measure | What (≤ 12 words) | Backed by | Polling (source, date) | Realistic outlook | Turnout lever (who it likely mobilizes) | Close race on same ballot? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MO | Amendment 3 | Repeals 2024 abortion rights; near-total ban; bans minors’ gender care | R — MO GOP legislature, Her Health Her Future PAC (Kehoe circle) · vs Stop the Ban MO, ACLU, Bloomberg | 43 Y / 44 N / 13 undecided (SLU/YouGov, Aug); was 50–39 Y in Feb | Toss-up. | Both sides. Bundling in trans care is the GOP’s attempt to win back 2024 swing voters | MO not on the close list. Prop A (row 2) shapes House seats |
| 2 | MO | Prop A (veto referendum) | Keep or reject GOP 2025 map splitting Kansas City | R (Yes = keep 2025 map) — Gov. Kehoe, MO GOP, Trump · vs People Not Politicians | ~⅓ yes / ⅓ no / ⅓ unsure (SLU/YouGov, late Sept) | Toss-up. Voters are confused about what yes and no mean | Dems (KC); low salience otherwise | Directly decides future MO-5 (KC) seat. AG appealing to SCOTUS |
| 3 | MD | Question 3 | Strips compactness rules from congressional maps (enables a Dem gerrymander) | D — Gov. Moore, MD Dems, unions (Fight Back Maryland) · vs MD GOP, Sen. Chris West | 25 Y / 53 N (UMBC, ~Oct 6); 40–35 Y (Hart, pro, Sept); 28–41 (opponents’ poll, Sept) | Likely No. Likely fails. Two circuit judges also ruled against it; state appealing | Mixed. Even Democrats lean no (35–42) | No (MD safe). Would target the state’s last GOP seat (MD-1) |
| 4 | VA | Question 1 | Constitutional right to reproductive freedom | D — VA Dem legislature, reproductive-rights groups (?) · vs anti-abortion groups (?) | n/a for 2026. 62% back an abortion right in the constitution (VCU, late 2024/early 2025) | Likely Yes. Likely passes | Dems (abortion) | Yes: VA House seats |
| 5 | NV | Question 6 | Constitutional abortion right to viability (second required vote) | D — reproductive-rights coalition (?) · vs anti-abortion groups (?) | n/a. Passed 64.4% in 2024 | Likely Yes. Likely passes | Dems | NV not on Fred’s list, but it is a swing state |
| 6 | NV | Question 7 | Photo ID in person; ID digits on mail ballots | R — Repair the Vote (David Gibbs), Gov. Lombardo’s PAC · vs Battle Born Progress, Silver State Voices | 65 Y / 24 N RV; 67–25 LV (Noble Predictive, Sept 22–26) | Likely Yes. Likely passes (second vote) | GOP | Same ballot as Q6. A clean test of measures pulling turnout both ways |
| 7 | ID | Prop 1 | Statutory right to abortion; reverses near-total ban | D — Idahoans United for Women and Families (~$4.9M) · vs Too Extreme for Idaho, ID GOP | 61 Y / 28 N; R ~45%, I 66% (Boise State, rpt Jul 10) | Leans Yes. Lean pass, but the legislature could amend it later (statute) | Dems + moderate Rs | No |
| 8 | AK | Ballot Measure 2 | Repeals top-4 primary + RCV; restores closed primaries | R — Bernadette Wilson et al., Musk ($1.5M) · vs No on 2 / Alaskans for Better Elections, NEA | n/a. 2024 repeal failed 49.9–50.1 (~740 votes) | Toss-up. | GOP base vs. Native/independent coalition | Yes: AK Senate |
| 9 | CO | Amendment 86 | Commission + supreme court must approve mid-decade congressional maps | R — Advance Colorado · vs CO Dems | n/a | No data. n/a. Needs 55%. No polling; label is a placeholder | Rs/independents (anti-gerrymander framing) | Yes: CO House seats |
| 10 | WA | I-645 | Repeals millionaires’ income tax; bans state/local income taxes | R — Let’s Go Washington (Brian Heywood) · vs WEA, WA Dems (?) | 35 Y / 57 N with fiscal language; 40–44 without (DHM, rpt Sept 30); 38–57 (GBAO, D, June) | Leans No. Lean fails. Wording-sensitive | Anti-tax Rs / Heywood network | No |
| 11 | CO | Amendment 87 vs Prop 136 | Graduated income tax (top 8.4% over $1M) vs. 4.4% flat cap | Mixed — 87: CO Dems · vs Polis. 136: anti-tax groups (?) · vs CO Dems | n/a | No data. n/a; label is a placeholder. Whichever gets more votes wins if both pass; Polis opposes 87; lawsuit pending | Progressive vs. anti-tax | Yes: CO House |
| 12 | NC | Photo-ID amendment (+ income-tax cap 3.5%, property-tax limit) | Extends constitutional photo ID to mail ballots | R — NC GOP legislature (?) · vs NC Dems, voting-rights groups (?) | ID 63% (Elon, Sept); tax cap 67 Y / 18 N | Likely Yes. Likely passes | GOP. The tax cap is a long-term revenue squeeze | Yes: NC House (NC Senate seat also open, not on Fred’s list) |
| 13 | OH | Issue 3 | Photo-ID requirement into state constitution | R — OH GOP (?), Honest Elections Project Action · vs voting-rights groups (?) | 86% back photo ID in principle (Honest Elections Project Action, pro-ID, June). No independent poll | Likely Yes. Likely passes | GOP | Yes: OH Senate + House |
| 14 | 6 states | Citizens-only voting (AK M3, AZ Prop 144, AR, KS, SD Amd J, WV) | Says only citizens may vote (already the law) | R — GOP legislatures, Americans for Citizen Voting (?) · vs little organized opposition | n/a | Likely Yes. Likely pass everywhere (similar 2024 measures passed in all 8 states, per memory, unverified) | GOP. A textbook turnout lever | Yes: AK, KS Senate; AZ House |
| 15 | ND / SD | ND Measure 1 / SD Amd L | 60% vote to pass constitutional amendments | R — GOP legislatures (ND Speaker Weisz) · vs LWV, ACS CAN, Protect the ND Constitution | n/a | No data. n/a; label is a placeholder | GOP legislature vs. initiative users | No |
| 16 | MO / MT | MO Amd 6; MT CI-133 (+ CI-132, I-194) | Protect initiative process; MT also: nonpartisan judges, ban corporate political spending | Nonpartisan — Montanans Decide (ex-SoS Brown R, Cooney D) · vs MT GOP legislators (?) | n/a | No data. n/a; label is a placeholder. CI-133 sponsor poll: 68% | Pro-democracy coalitions | MT: yes (House) |
| 17 | VA | Q2 & Q3 | Repeal same-sex marriage ban; auto-restore felon voting rights | D — VA Dem legislature · vs VA GOP, social conservatives (?) | n/a for 2026. 66% back restoration (VCU, late 2024/early 2025) | Leans Yes. Lean pass | Dems / Black voters (Q3) | Yes: VA House |
| 18 | MA | Q3 / Q8 / Q9 | Top-two primary; repeal pot sales; uphold 2024 gun law | Mixed — Q9 Yes: Healey, gun-safety groups (?) · vs GOAL (?); Q3/Q8 sponsors (?) | Q3 51–32 (UMass, Aug), 41–39 (UNH, Sept); Q8 55% oppose (UMass, Aug); Q9 ~70% keep (UMass) | Toss-up. (label = Q3) Q3 toss-up; Q8 likely fails; Q9 likely upheld | Q9: gun-rights base | No |
| 19 | CO / AZ / NE / WA | CO 134 & 135; AZ 318; NE sports; WA I-638 | Trans sports bans, bathroom rules, ban on minors’ gender surgery | R — GOP legislators, Let’s Go Washington (I-638) (?) · vs CO Dems, LGBTQ groups | n/a | No data. n/a; label is a placeholder. NE measure pending at state supreme court | GOP. Classic wedge | Yes: CO, AZ House; NE Senate |
| 20 | MI | Proposal 2 (+ Prop 1 con-con) | Bans utility/contractor donations; ad disclosure | Nonpartisan — Mop Up Michigan · vs Protect MI Free Speech, DTE, Consumers, BCBS MI | 81% (PPP, for sponsors, undated) | No data. n/a; label is a placeholder. DTE is spending against it | Anti-corruption, cross-party | Yes: MI Senate + House |
By theme
- Abortion: 4 measures. Three would protect abortion rights (VA Q1, NV Q6, ID Prop 1) and one would roll back the 2024 win (MO Amd 3, a toss-up). Turnout energy is muted compared with 2022–24 (Sabato).
- Voter ID / citizenship: Photo-ID constitutional measures in NV, OH, NC, AZ (Prop 144) and CO (Amd 84, mail-ballot ID number). Citizens-only voting in AK, AZ, AR, KS, SD, WV. Most restate existing law. They poll 60%+ and are symbolic turnout plays.
- Redistricting: MO Prop A (the most consequential), MD Q3 (a pro-Dem gerrymander that looks likely to fail), CO Amd 86 (an anti-Dem-redraw block that needs 55%). VA’s mid-decade amendment was decided at an April 21 special election and is not on this ballot.
- Ranked-choice / primaries: AK M2 (repeal, a toss-up after the 2024 near-miss), MA Q3 (adopt top-two), plus local RCV measures in Honolulu and Longmont, CO.
- Minimum wage / paid leave: None found statewide in 2026. VT Prop 3 (constitutional right to collective bargaining) and MD Q1 (fund union contracts) are the labor items.
- Marijuana: MA Q8 would roll back legal sales (55% oppose). ID HJR 4 would bar initiatives on drug legalization. No legalization measures found.
- Taxes: Progressive taxes are on defense (WA I-645 repeal) and offense (CO Amd 87). Anti-tax measures: NC 3.5% cap, IA 2/3 vote to raise income taxes, FL homestead (needs 60%), TN property-tax ban, UT 60% for tax initiatives, CO 136.
- Guns: AR Issue 2 (gun rights as a “fundamental” right), MA Q9 (veto referendum on the 2024 gun law, ~70% keep). The ID state-gun vote is novelty.
- Immigration: CO Amd 81 (ICE notification, needs 55%). AZ Prop 317 (cartels as terrorists; critics warn of border militarization).
- Trans issues: MO Amd 3 (bundled), CO 134/135, AZ 318, NE sports, WA I-638 and parental-notification initiatives. VT Prop 4 adds gender identity to equal protection (pro-LGBTQ).
- Direct democracy: Restrictions in ND M1, SD Amd L, UT (tax initiatives), ID HJR 4, CO Amd 85 (8th-grade reading level). Protections in MO Amd 6 and MT CI-133. Context: Kansans rejected Supreme Court elections 61–39 on Aug 4.
Turnout-lever theory — evidence so far
- Some support for a general effect: Tolbert & Smith found each initiative raised midterm turnout by roughly 1.2–1.7 points. The effect is strongest when measures are salient and well-funded.
- The canonical case is weaker than its reputation: Smith et al. (2006) found the 2004 same-sex-marriage bans did not measurably drive turnout once competitive races were controlled for. Other analyses find effects in swing states and midterms. CIRCLE warns that mobilization campaigns, not the measure itself, do the work.
- Split tickets undercut “reverse coattails”: In 2024, abortion measures won in states that elected anti-abortion candidates. Missouri 2024 is the cleanest example: Amendment 3 passed (~52%) while Trump and Hawley won easily (from memory, unverified). In 2022, measure votes outran Democratic candidates, and more ballots were cast at the top of the ticket than on the measure.
- Ohio Aug 2023 Issue 1 (GOP attempt to raise the amendment threshold to 60% before the abortion vote) backfired. It failed ~57–43 with unusually high August turnout, and that mobilization carried into the Nov 2023 abortion win (from memory, unverified). Measures meant to change the rules can energize the other side.
- Implication for 2026: The GOP-side ID and citizenship measures are near-certain passes with no opposition campaign, so expect little new turnout from them. Contested, funded fights (MO Amd 3, AK M2, MO Prop A) are where campaign activity, not the measure itself, could move margins in close races.
Caveats
- Polling is thin. Many measures (VA, NV Q6, AK M2, CO 86/87, MT) had no 2026 public poll found. Sponsor-funded polls are noted as such: MI Prop 2 (PPP), OH Issue 3 (Honest Elections Project Action), MD Hart (pro) and Protect Maryland Votes (con).
- Measure numbers for several states (AR, KS, WV, NC, NE, WA, UT) are taken from secondary guides. Confirm on Ballotpedia or the state SoS.
- Litigation is pending for MO Prop A (SCOTUS appeal), CO Amd 87 (lawsuit) and the NE sports measure (state supreme court).
- No statewide measures were found for TX, ME, MN, SC, PA or NH in November 2026. NH’s school-tax-cap votes are local. Searches were limited, so absence isn’t confirmed.
- The “realistic outlook” column is a judgment from the polls cited, not a forecast.
Sources
- Ballotpedia — Top 50 measures to watch (2026-10-20)
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball — November ballot measures to watch (Oct 2026)
- Bolts — Cheat sheet to the 2026 general elections (accessed 2026-10-24)
- US News — Voting-related measures incl. voter ID (2026-10-22)
- Missouri Independent — razor-thin margin on Amendment 3 (2026-09-11)
- KCTV — Missouri voters split on redistricting (Prop A) (2026-09-22)
- Missouri Independent — Supreme Court orders Prop A vote (2026-09-03)
- Maryland Matters / Daily Record — UMBC poll on Q3 (2026-10-07)
- Daily Record — dueling September polls on MD Q3 (2026-09-23)
- Wikipedia — 2026 Nevada Question 7 (Noble Predictive poll) (accessed 2026-10-24)
- Wikipedia — 2026 Nevada Question 6 (accessed 2026-10-24)
- Stateline — Idaho abortion measure support across party lines (2026-07-10)
- Alaska Beacon — Alaskans to vote on election overhaul (2026-07-29)
- Alaska Public — 2024 RCV repeal failed by 664 votes (2024-11-20)
- KOMO — ballot language could sway WA millionaires tax vote (~2026-09-30)
- Colorado Politics — Amendment 87 (2026-10-02)
- Colorado Politics — Amendment 86 (2026-10-02)
- NC Newsline — Elon poll on NC amendments (2026-09-17)
- Ohio Capital Journal — What is Issue 3 (2026-07-29)
- Daily Signal — pro-ID poll, Ohio (2026-06-05)
- ClickOnDetroit — Michigan Proposal 2 (2026-10-17)
- Minnesota Lawyer — Kansans reject Supreme Court elections amendment (2026-08-05)
- Cardinal News — Virginia’s 3 amendments (2026-08-25)
- Backed-by column (all accessed 2026-10-24): Missouri Independent — Stop the Ban launches No on 3 · KCUR — Her Health Her Future PAC · STLPR — Kehoe on Trump-backed map · Axios KC — Prop A · Maryland Matters — Q3 supporters · WJLA — MD rulings · Nevada Independent — Q7 · Idaho Capital Sun — Prop 1 money · ADN — Musk and AK M2 · Axios Denver — Amd 86 · CO Dems ballot positions · WA State Standard — I-645 · KFGO — ND Measure 1 debate · Daily Montanan — CI-133 · ClickOnDetroit — MI Prop 2
- Tolbert & Smith — Impact of initiatives on turnout (IRI) (n.d.)
- Maclean’s — When ballots get stuffed (Smith 2004 analysis) (n.d.)
- CIRCLE — Do controversial ballot measures affect youth turnout? (n.d.)
- Scientific American — Abortion won on ballots, not top of ticket (Nov 2024)