2026 State Races — Governors, Election Officials, Legislatures, Courts
Snapshot: 2026-10-24. Election: Tue Nov 3.
Here’s why this matters
The people elected to these offices will run the 2028 presidential election, draw the next congressional maps, and file most of the lawsuits against the federal government.
- Governors sign or veto maps and election laws, appoint replacements when a Senate seat opens (SC, FL and OH all have appointed senators on this ballot), and in most states certify presidential electors.
- Secretaries of state administer and certify elections. Several 2026 candidates have denied past election results.
- Attorneys general lead the multistate lawsuits that act as the main legal check on the administration.
- Legislatures draw maps, which mid-decade redistricting has made a live issue every cycle. Flipping a single chamber ends one-party control of a state.
- State supreme courts decided this year’s map fights and rule on abortion and on contested elections.
- Turnout drops further down the ballot, so these races are where targeted turnout counts most.
Snapshot history
| Date | Close governor races | Chambers rated Toss-up | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | GA, NV, WI tied or within 3 | 8 (Sabato Oct 16) | Initial snapshot. Sabato’s Oct 16 update moved 10 chambers, all toward D |
Governors — closest first
Likely/Solid RLean RToss-upLean DLikely/Solid D
| # | State | Race (D vs R; * = incumbent) | Held | Cook / Sabato / Inside | Best indicator | Why it matters nationally |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GA (open) | Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Rick Jackson | R | Toss / Toss / Toss | AJC/UGA Oct 7–15: Jackson 46–45 | Certifies 2028 electors; signs maps; 6-week abortion ban; R trifecta at risk |
| 2 | NV | Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo* | R | Toss / Toss / Tilt R | Noble Oct 7–13: Lombardo 40–37 | Ford + D legislature = D trifecta; ends record veto streak |
| 3 | WI (open) | David Crowley vs Tom Tiffany | D | Toss / Lean D / Toss | Marquette Sep: Crowley 49–46 | Veto over GOP legislature; trifecta possible either way; certifies 2028 electors |
| 4 | OR | Tina Kotek* vs Christine Drazan | D | Lean D ×3 | Polls split ±2 | Drazan win breaks D trifecta; Kotek approval ~−19 |
| 5 | OH (open) | Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy | R | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | Silver avg Oct 21: Acton +4.7 | Governor sits on the redistricting commission; flip breaks R trifecta |
| 6 | AK (open) | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs Bernadette Wilson | R | Lean D / Lean D / Toss | DFP ~Oct 20: K-T 53–47 after ranked-choice rounds | First D governor since 2014; R vote split three ways |
| 7 | TX | Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott* | R | Lean R ×3 | RCP avg ~Oct 21: Abbott +3.5 | Started the redistricting war; abortion ban |
| 8 | MI (open) | Jocelyn Benson vs John James | D | Lean D / Likely D / Tilt D | Marist Oct: Benson 51–45 | James + both chambers = R trifecta; certifies 2028 electors |
| 9 | AZ | Katie Hobbs* vs Andy Biggs | D | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | Equis Sep: Hobbs 49–43 | Hobbs’ vetoes block GOP legislature; Biggs is an election denier |
| 10 | KS (open) | Cindy Holscher vs Ty Masterson | D | Lean R / Lean R / Tilt R | 270toWin avg: Masterson +6 | R flip = R trifecta; abortion |
| 11 | FL (open) | David Jolly vs Byron Donalds | R | Lean R ×3 | Most polls Donalds +7–11; one tie | R trifecta; new congressional map |
| 12 | IA (open) | Rob Sand vs Zach Lahn | R | Lean D / Lean D / Tilt D | Siena: Sand 52–41; Suffolk 55–43 | D flip breaks R trifecta; veto on abortion-ban expansion |
Safe/Likely D (13): CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MN (Klobuchar), NM, NY, PA, RI · Safe/Likely R (11): AL (Tuberville vs Doug Jones), AR, ID, NE, NH (Ayotte), OK, SC, SD, TN, VT (Phil Scott), WY California: Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R), Safe D.
Secretaries of state — they run 2028
| # | State | Race | Ratings | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MI (open) | Garlin Gilchrist vs Anthony Forlini | Toss-up | Top 2028 swing state; open seat |
| 2 | IN (open) | Beau Bayh vs Max Engling | Toss-up | Rare red-state opening |
| 3 | GA (open) | Penny Brown Reynolds vs Tim Fleming | Lean R | Replaces Raffensperger, who held firm in 2020; runoff Dec 1 if needed |
| 4 | OH (open) | Allison Russo vs Robert Sprague | Lean R | Sits on the Ohio Redistricting Commission |
| 5 | IA | Ryan Peterman vs Paul Pate* | Lean R | Red-state reach |
| 6 | WI (open) | JoCasta Zamarripa vs Jay Schroeder | Lean D | Mostly symbolic — a bipartisan commission runs WI elections |
| 7 | AZ | Adrian Fontes* vs Alexander Kolodin | Likely D | Kolodin has pushed fraud claims; AZ has a history of county certification fights |
| 8 | NV | Cisco Aguilar* vs Jim Marchant | Likely D | 2022 rematch; Marchant is a prominent election denier |
| 9 | MN | Steve Simon* vs Tad Jude | Likely D | National election-administration voice |
PA and NC: the chief election official is appointed, so the governor and legislature are the lever.
Attorneys general — the lawsuit check
| # | State | Race | Ratings | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MN | Keith Ellison* vs Ron Schutz | Toss-up · SurveyUSA Oct 8–12: 45–44 | High-profile anti-administration litigator |
| 2 | MI (open) | Eli Savit vs Doug Lloyd | Toss-up · “virtual tie” (unverified) | Nessel led multistate suits and the fake-electors prosecution |
| 3 | AZ | Kris Mayes* vs Warren Petersen | Lean D · Oct polls Mayes +2 to +14 | Fake-electors case; election law; abortion |
| 4 | WI | Josh Kaul* vs Eric Toney | Lean D | Election litigation; multistate suits |
| 5 | NV (open) | Nicole Cannizzaro vs Adriana Guzmán Fralick | Lean D | Fake-electors case |
| 6 | GA (open) | Tanya Miller vs Brian Strickland | Lean R | Defends election rules in a swing state |
| 7 | KS | Chris Mann vs Kris Kobach* | Lean R | Kobach is the national voter-ID / proof-of-citizenship crusader |
| 8 | IA | Nathan Willems vs Brenna Bird* | Lean R | Leads GOP multistate suits |
| 9 | TX (open) | Nathan Johnson vs Mayes Middleton | Likely R | Most aggressive GOP litigator office (Paxton’s) |
Legislative chambers that could flip
| # | Chamber | Now | Ratings | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Senate | R 17–13 | Toss-up | Both AZ chambers + Hobbs = D trifecta; Biggs + both = R trifecta |
| 2 | AZ House | R 33–27 | Toss-up | Same |
| 3 | MI House | R 58–52 | Toss-up | D flip + Senate + Benson = D trifecta |
| 4 | MI Senate | D 20–18 | Toss-up | R flip + House + James = R trifecta |
| 5 | MN House | Tied 67–66 | Toss-up | Both MN chambers + Klobuchar = D trifecta |
| 6 | MN Senate | DFL 34–33 | Toss-up | Same |
| 7 | PA Senate | R 27–23 | Toss-up | Flip + Shapiro = D trifecta in the top 2028 swing state |
| 8 | WI Assembly | R 54–45 | Toss-up | Both WI chambers + Crowley = first D trifecta since 2010 |
| 9 | WI Senate | R 18–15 | Lean D | Same |
| 10 | NH House | R 212–169 | Lean D | Breaks R trifecta |
| 11 | ME House | D 75–73–3 | Lean D | Protects D trifecta |
| 12 | GA House | R 99–81 | Lean R | Breaks R trifecta; veto point on maps and election rules |
| 13 | NH Senate | R 16–8 | Lean R | Ds could break the R supermajority |
Supermajorities: NC Senate (R 30–20) — Dems need only +1 to protect Gov. Stein’s vetoes on maps and election law. Dems also targeting R supermajorities in OH, MO, FL, SC House and IA House.
State supreme courts
| Court | Up | Majority now | Could it flip? | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | Open: Amy Eddy (liberal-leaning) vs Dan Wilson (conservative) | Liberal-leaning | Yes, sets up a conservative majority in 2028 | Abortion, voting, climate |
| NC | Earls (D) vs Sarah Stevens (R) | R 5–2 | R win → 6–1 through ~2030 | Maps, voting rights |
| OH | Brunner (D) seat; possibly a second (unverified) | R 6–1 | Could go 7–0 | Maps; abortion-amendment enforcement |
| WA | 5 of 9 seats | Progressive | Possible but unlikely | State constitutional rights |
| KS (retention) | Rosen, Walsh | Liberal | If retention fails, Masterson appoints | Abortion, election law |
| MI | 2 seats | D 6–1 | No | Initiatives |
Already decided in 2026: WI (April, liberal majority 4–3 → 5–2), GA (May, R appointees held), AR (March, conservatives held).
Overlap with close federal races
Stacked ballots, where turnout drives everything at once: GA (governor, SoS, AG), MI (governor, SoS, AG, both chambers), WI (governor, AG, both chambers), AZ (governor, SoS, AG, both chambers), NV (governor, SoS, AG), MN (AG, both chambers), OH (governor, SoS, court), IA and KS (governor, AG), TX (governor, AG), AK (governor), NC (court, Senate supermajority), PA (state Senate).
Caveats
- Governor ratings via Wikipedia’s table (Cook Oct 23, Sabato Oct 22, Inside Oct 15). SoS ratings are Sabato’s from Sep 9 and AG ratings from Aug 20, so both are 1–2 months old.
- No October polls found for the AZ or WI governor races. No current CNalysis chamber ratings found.
- Unverified: MI AG poll, TX AG nominee (based on early runoff returns), second OH court seat, NC elections-board control.
Sources
- Governors: Wikipedia — 2026 gubernatorial elections · Sabato — Ohio to Leans D (Oct 22) · GA poll · NV poll · WI Marquette · OR polls · AK · TX · AZ · KS · FL · IA Marist · MN
- SoS: Wikipedia — 2026 SoS elections · NBC — Dems eye red-state SoS (Oct 24) · Ohio Capital Journal (Oct 23) · AZ Mirror — deniers · States United
- AG: Wikipedia — 2026 AG elections · Orrick AG preview (Oct 13) · HPPR — KS AG
- Legislatures: Sabato — key state legislative races (Oct 16) · MultiState — trifecta scenarios · Voting Rights Lab — mid-decade redistricting
- Courts: Bolts — 2026 supreme court guide · State Court Report — November races (Sep 29)