2026 Election Watch — How the Vote Is Run and Counted
Snapshot: 2026-10-24; dirty-tricks update 2026-10-31 (rows 15–18 and AK row 1); Sunday update 2026-11-01 (rows 19–26, CA, AK, monitors, Stevens); election-eve refresh 2026-11-02 (AK suit dismissed Nov 1; SCOTUS denied DOJ’s CA request Nov 2; Stevens endorsed Rogers). Election: Tue Nov 3.
Archived 2026-11-07. This page is an election-eve snapshot and will not be updated further. The closing update below gives the results as of Nov 7; the full results are in the sources named there.
Closing update (2026-11-07): what happened on the watch list
- Mississippi (row 27): the “recount watch” framing turned out not to apply. Mississippi law provides no automatic or candidate-requested recount; only a court challenge is possible, and none was reported. Colom (D) leads Hyde-Smith by 2,574 votes (97% counted); late mail ballots are due Nov 10.
- Alaska: Peltola (D) leads Sullivan (R) by 637 votes with 74% counted; ranked-choice tabulation starts Nov 18 if no one passes 50%. Kansas governor: Holscher (D) leads by about 7,000 votes, triggering a state-required hand-count audit; Masterson has not conceded.
- Certification dates still ahead: Colorado counties Nov 13; California counties Dec 3, state Dec 11. I did not find other states’ dates.
- Results are in 2026 Senate — Competitive Races, 2026 House — Competitive Races and 2026 California Propositions — Watch List. I did not re-check the dirty-tricks rows (15 to 26) against what actually happened; those rows are as written through Nov 4.
Sources: search summaries and page fetches by Claude on 2026-11-07 (AP counts via a Yahoo live blog and NBC/CBS/CNBC trackers; no AP page opened). Numbers move daily, so check AP for the latest.
Here’s why this matters
- States and counties run elections, not Washington. County clerks count, county boards certify, and secretaries of state certify statewide. The federal government’s formal role is narrow: enforcing voting-rights law and sending observers.
- This year the federal government is unusually active. DOJ is sending about 1,000 monitors, suing states over voter rolls and ballots, and sued to block certification of the Alaska Senate race if the Republican loses. A federal judge dismissed that suit Nov 1 (DOJ is appealing), and the Supreme Court on Nov 2 denied DOJ’s emergency bid to stop California counting about 20,000 ballots. So far the courts have turned DOJ down on both.
- Certification is a required duty, not a choice. Every county refusal since 2020 ended in certification, either by court order or because officials backed down. A refusal still causes delay, lawsuits and “stolen election” stories.
- Slow counts are normal. In states that count mail ballots late, early leads can flip (the “red mirage” or “blue shift”). A change in the lead is not evidence of fraud.
- 2028 runs through the people elected now. The officials and county boards chosen this year, and the precedents set this year, will administer the next presidential election.
Snapshot history
| Date | Notes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Initial snapshot |
| 2026-10-24 (pm) | CA ballot suit: DOJ appealed to the 9th Circuit before Judge Carter ruled; argument set Sun Oct 25, district hearing Oct 27. AK suit: Peltola + DSCC moved to intervene and dismiss; AG Blanche says it doesn’t seek to stop certification. No new DOJ monitor locations found |
| 2026-10-31 | Dirty-tricks sweep (news, not polls). AK: NYT report that Peltola’s campaign and DSCC aides helped recruit the second Sullivan (Peltola denies); DOJ amended its suit, issued ~36 subpoenas, asked to segregate ballots. MI: Rebellion PAC ad, Empowering Black America PAC ads, Carlson ad dispute. New rows 15–18: AI deepfakes/robocalls, FCC waiver. Searches only; most pages not read |
| 2026-11-01 | CA: Carter denied DOJ’s emergency request Oct 28 (likely no standing or cause of action; segregating would “wreak havoc”); 9th Cir. panel rejected DOJ 2–1; DOJ appealing. AK: suit fast-tracked Oct 26; Oct 29 amended complaint says Peltola’s campaign and DSCC misled Judge Gleason; Dunleavy ordered a state probe; no ruling found. Monitors: DOJ declaration (Oct 28) says FBI and ICE won’t serve. MI: Superseded Nov 1 pm: Stevens did endorse Rogers that afternoon (see MI row 15). Earlier that day it was her fiancé and former campaign chair backing Rogers. New rows 19–26: NC, TX, GA, mailers, PA/AZ/OH Gov, House, OH Senate; later that day Stevens appeared with Rogers at a Detroit church (still says she votes El-Sayed). Searches only |
| 2026-11-02 | Two court rulings. AK: Judge Gleason dismissed DOJ’s suit Sun Nov 1 (no standing; leave to amend denied; ballot-secrecy and Purcell concerns); DOJ filed notice of appeal to the 9th Cir. within ~2 hours. CA: Supreme Court denied DOJ’s emergency application Mon Nov 2 (one-sentence order, no noted dissent, no reasoning). MI: NBC and Fox snippets confirm Stevens endorsed Rogers Sunday. Resolves the “CNN ruling Nov 1” item in row 25 (it was the AK dismissal, per timing; CNN page not readable). Read in full: CNBC Nov 1 and Nov 2, Democracy Docket Oct 26. Rest from search summaries. No FCC decision, no monitor list, no county-board refusal, no new TX/PA/AZ/WI dirty-tricks news found |
| 2026-11-03 (am) | Election Day morning sweep (CBS live blog read; rest search summaries). AK: no 9th Cir. ruling found; DOJ appeal pending. CA: SCOTUS denial stands. Monitors: DOJ says ~1,000 in all 50 states (first time), “largest in DOJ history”; Oct 28 declaration (no FBI/ICE, unarmed) unchanged; no ruling found on the Denver/ICE-at-polls suit or the NAACP monitor suit; no ICE incidents reported. Certification refusals: none yet. Local problems: Westchester Co., NY (NY-17) scanners failed at most sites, voters using paper ballots; NBC also reported 3 broken machines at a Greenburgh site; flooding moved polling places in St. Lucie Co., FL and two other regions. No widespread failures found. ME: CBS lists Collins vs Troy Jackson (resolves row 24’s flag in 2026 Senate — Competitive Races) |
| 2026-11-04 (am) | MS Senate recount watch added as row 27: Colom leads Hyde-Smith by 43 votes at 95.6% in, uncalled. Senate/House/CA results in 2026 Senate — Competitive Races, 2026 House — Competitive Races, 2026 California Propositions — Watch List. Snippets only |
Watch list — highest concern first
High concernMediumLow
| # | Where | What’s happening | Concern | Status / next date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AK | DOJ sued Oct 22 to block certification of the Senate race if Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) loses to Mary Peltola (D). It argues that a second “Daniel J. Sullivan” on the ballot confuses voters. Alaska’s supreme court had already ordered him onto the ballot. Trump said he ordered the suit; Cato called it “borderline frivolous” | High | UPDATE Nov 1 (CNBC, read): Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the suit in Anchorage, 2 days before Election Day. She found DOJ lacked standing (its requested relief wouldn’t remedy its alleged injury), dismissed without prejudice for lack of jurisdiction, and denied leave to amend as futile: the court can’t order ballots segregated for a federal investigation of voters. She also said segregation would conflict with ballot secrecy, cited the Purcell principle, and said the matter belongs to the state’s time/place/manner role. DOJ filed notice of appeal to the 9th Circuit and says the dismissal was procedural and didn’t dispute that Dan J. Sullivan is a “frivolous candidate.” She did not decide whether a second Sullivan was recruited. Trump: “voter fraud at the highest level,” says Peltola should be removed from the ballot and prosecuted. Sen. Sullivan says he’ll accept the results if he loses. DOJ’s criminal/civil probe by the U.S. Attorney continues. A 9th Cir. ruling before Nov 3 not found. (Earlier history follows.) Earlier status: Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC (Elias Law Group) moved Oct 24 to intervene and dismiss. AG Blanche says the suit “does not seek to stop any ballot from being cast or to stop the certification.” State Division of Elections: reviewing the complaint. Ranked-choice tabulation takes about 2 weeks. Update Oct 29–31 (search summaries): DOJ amended its complaint, issued at least 3 dozen subpoenas/preservation requests to both the Peltola and Sullivan campaigns, and asked to “segregate” ballots cast for Daniel J. Sullivan; the state says ballots are commingled and segregating would break secrecy, and has moved to dismiss (“lacks any merit”). No ruling found. Election Law Blog says DOJ’s NVRA quote altered the statute’s text; Murkowski called the suit unnecessary. Gov. Dunleavy suggested certification may be “stopped or changed” pending a state investigation | NBC, CNBC, Cato, MS NOW, The Hill, CNBC Oct 29, Election Law Blog |
| 1a | AK (who recruited “Decoy Dan”) | Disputed. A NYT report (via search summary; not read) says Peltola’s campaign and senior DSCC aides helped recruit Dan J. Sullivan to dilute the incumbent’s vote, citing a former Peltola campaign manager and texts. Peltola (Juneau rally): “I knew nothing about any other candidate on the ballot except for me and the incumbent.” Sen. Sullivan says she is “still lying.” Alaska courts found nothing illegal in the candidacy, even if not in good faith. Primary: Peltola 48%, Sen. Sullivan 43%, Dan J. Sullivan 2%. Nov 1 detail (CNBC and others, search summaries): the Times reports months of texts between DSCC and Peltola-campaign staff, including an idea for a “MAGA Party” that never happened; former campaign manager Elisa Rios said Peltola wasn’t directly involved but was “definitely aware,” then asked to retract; Peltola is not on the texts; campaign and DSCC deny recruiting spoilers; House Oversight (Comer) opened a probe. Judge Gleason fast-tracked dismissal, appeared skeptical of DOJ’s timing, and may rule before Nov 3; DOJ’s Oct 29 amendment added a Supremacy Clause claim and says the dismissal motions are moot; state attorneys call ballot segregation “not even possible.” Answers the open question in election-message-review-2026-10-30.md only partly: the allegation, its source and the denial are now found; the NYT texts are unverified here |
High | DOJ and state criminal probes open. Read the NYT piece itself before citing. Nov 2 check: NYT article not reachable here; search summaries (Oct 28 onward) add that Rios said DSCC aides introduced Democratic operative Jerid Kurtz to campaign staff in 2025 and that Kurtz found Dan J. Sullivan (of Petersburg); Rios later retracted to the Times; Dan J. Sullivan says he entered on his own. Still unverified. Gleason’s ruling (row 1) did not resolve it. State probe: Dunleavy ordered the Alaska Bureau of Investigation to investigate the Peltola campaign (search summary); no result or charge found. CNBC’s Nov 1 piece mentions only the U.S. Attorney’s investigation, not the state probe | ABC, The Hill, Fox, CBS (via search summary) |
| 2 | CA | DOJ sued Oct 15 to make the state set aside mail ballots from about 20,000 voters it calls “likely” noncitizens. SoS Weber says DOJ gave no evidence. A similar list in Nevada (~16,000 people) turned out to be all citizens | High | Judge Carter (C.D. Cal.) hadn’t ruled by DOJ’s own noon deadline Oct 22, so DOJ appealed to the 9th Circuit, calling his silence a “constructive denial.” A 9th Circuit panel (Bennett, Bumatay, Sanchez) hears argument Sun Oct 25; Carter’s hearing is Tue Oct 27. LA County checked a sample of DOJ’s list and found 1 in 4 were born in the U.S. Update Oct 28–Nov 1: Carter denied DOJ’s TRO (DOJ likely lacks standing and a cause of action; the federal noncitizen-voting crime doesn’t let DOJ override California’s ballot processing; DOJ can still prosecute individuals) and ordered federal officials to stop threatening CA election workers. A 9th Cir. panel then rejected DOJ’s bid 2–1 (date not confirmed). DOJ filed notice of appeal of Carter’s ruling. California AG Bonta: will keep fighting for dismissal. UPDATE Nov 2 (CNBC, read): the Supreme Court denied DOJ’s emergency application Monday evening (DOJ filed that morning; one-sentence order, no reasoning, no dissent noted, issued without asking California to respond, which Bonta called “very rare”). The 9th Cir. denial of DOJ’s appeal of Carter’s ruling was Fri Oct 30, 2–1 (the earlier pre-ruling appeal was dismissed 2–1 for lack of jurisdiction, Bumatay dissenting). Underlying suit (filed Oct 15, C.D. Cal.) continues. Related: Judge Trina Thompson on Oct 30 barred DOJ from threatening election workers with prosecution over ballot processing; a hearing was held Nov 2 (outcome not found). Judge Carter earlier told DOJ the threats must “cease immediately” and DOJ subpoenaed LA election workers (snippets). Ballots will be counted under normal procedures | NPR Oct 28, PBS, NBC (snippets) |
| 3 | National | DOJ monitors: Civil Rights Division head Dhillon promised about 1,000, “the largest monitoring effort” in DOJ history. For comparison, DOJ monitored 64 jurisdictions in 2022. Notices have gone to at least 10 states, and states were not copied at first | High | List still growing. DOJ says details will come “closer to the election”. Update Oct 28–Nov 1: in a sworn declaration filed after an NAACP suit, DOJ’s acting Voting Section chief said FBI and ICE personnel will not serve as monitors; monitors will come from Bureau of Prisons, ATF and DEA, are unarmed, and won’t talk to voters inside polling places. Location list still not final. The declaration isn’t a blanket ban on federal law enforcement near polls. Nov 2 check: no final DOJ monitor list found; DHS Sec. Mullin quoted as saying agents would be at polling places only if there is a threat there (snippet). Earlier comparison figures in search summaries: 289 monitors in 2022 and 714 in 27 states in 2024 (the 64-jurisdiction figure above is from earlier reporting; not reconciled) | NPR / OPB, Election Law Blog, JURIST (snippets) |
| 4 | National | Federal agents at polls. DHS says it has no plans to post ICE at polling places but hasn’t ruled out targeted arrests. Arlington, VA sued Oct 20 under the 1865 law that bars armed federal personnel at polls. LULAC, NAACP and DSCC also have suits | Medium | No TRO sought, so a ruling before Nov 3 is unlikely unless agents are deployed. Nov 2: no new ruling found; Denver, LULAC, Common Cause and UnidosUS (Sept suit) outcome not found; a Raw Story snippet says a judge criticized ICE over records on possible polling-place deployments (details not read) | AP, Democracy Docket |
| 5 | National | Schumer, Jeffries, DSCC, DCCC and the DGA sued Oct 20 to bar federal voter-roll purges and ballot denials, and to have threats of prosecution against election officials declared illegal | Medium | Chief Judge Boasberg (D.D.C.). Motion for expedited discovery filed Oct 23 | AP |
| 6 | National | DHS citizenship lists for states. The Supreme Court let them proceed Aug 24. EPIC is suing over them, and NVRA bars systematic voter purges within 90 days of an election | Medium | Judge Xinis (D. Md.) could rule at any time | Votebeat, Democracy Docket |
| 7 | CO (Adams) | Monitors notified for Adams County (CO-8). The Douglas County notice was withdrawn as “made in error.” Griswold treats the notice as a request that needs state approval | Medium | SoS and AG reviewing. See DOJ section | CO Politics, Colorado Newsline |
| 8 | GA (Fulton) | The FBI seized Fulton County’s 2020 ballots, ballot images and voter rolls Jan 28. The DNC is suing for records of any plans to seize ballots or machines before 2026 certification | Medium | Nov 2: nothing new found on certification refusals by any county board (searches returned only 2022/2024 history; Cochise chair Antenori told KJZZ in March the board will follow the law). County is seeking return of the materials. FOIA suits pending | Stateline, Democracy Docket |
| 9 | County boards | Possible certification refusers: Vickie Marquardt (Otero NM, refused in 2022, “not ruling out” refusing again); Jeanne Herman (Washoe NV, has voted no on every certification since 2020); Clint Curtis (Shasta CA registrar, tried to stall the June primary). Cochise AZ is also watched | Medium | AZ county canvass Nov 19; CA counties Dec 3 | Democracy Docket (D-aligned), KJZZ |
| 10 | AZ (Maricopa) | Recorder Justin Heap (R) kept 25 citizens blocked from voting, based on federal SAVE flags. AG Mayes sued Oct 21 and Heap agreed to reinstate them. Heap’s long feud with the GOP-led county board continues | Medium | Resolved for these 25 voters. Watch the recorder–board split on Election Day | Votebeat |
| 11 | Mail ballots | Watson v. RNC (June 29, 5–4) upheld state grace periods for ballots postmarked by Election Day. The Supreme Court (Sep 14) kept USPS’s new mail-ballot rules blocked for November. The USPS postmark rule (Dec 2025) means a postmark may be dated after drop-off | Low | Grace periods stand. USPS advises mailing a week early | Venable, Votebeat, Spectrum |
| 12 | Voter rolls | DOJ has lost about 26 straight suits demanding state voter files. On Oct 9, Judge Sooknanan vacated the data program nationwide. Utah’s suit was dismissed Oct 23. The 9th Circuit (OR, CA) is pending | Low | DOJ has not appealed the Oct 9 ruling (as of Oct 14) | Protect Democracy, ProPublica, SL Tribune |
| 13 | WY | Gov. Gordon (R) asked the state AG to investigate “a bit aggressive” DOJ monitors in Laramie County during the Aug 18 primary. They tried to interview voters and inspect tabulators. DOJ disputes that account | Low | AG investigation open | AP, NOTUS |
| 14 | Polls | Wedgewood Polling admitted fabricating polls, calling them a “social experiment.” Silver, the NYT (15 polls) and DDHQ (17 polls) dropped them. The Wedgewood polls had leaned about 1 point toward D | Low | Banned from Silver’s averages | Newsweek, AP-style wire |
| 15 | MI Senate (El-Sayed D vs Rogers R) | Three ad fights. (a) Rebellion PAC (Cenk Uygur; progressive) ad blames U.S. aid to Israel for prices (“set that $7 aside for killing Palestinians”); critics call it antisemitic, Uygur says it targets the Israeli government. El-Sayed’s campaign: not affiliated. Stevens demanded he condemn it; Rogers praised her. Funder not reported. (b) Empowering Black America PAC, about $1.5M since Oct 19, pro-Rogers: “Disrespectful. Dismissive. Dishonest.” Michigan Public says it uses partial quotes and out-of-context claims. Only donor in filings: a Florida Republican/AIPAC-linked giver. PR firm Mercury Public Affairs. Glengariff/Detroit News poll: El-Sayed 88% of likely Black voters, Rogers 4%. (c) Stevens wants El-Sayed to pull his own ad featuring Tucker Carlson (snippet only). Nov 1: Stevens’ fiancé and former campaign chair David Kramer say they’re voting for Rogers over antisemitism concerns; Stevens says on CNN she still backs El-Sayed (“a household divided”); Rogers praised her; a joint Stevens–El-Sayed event was planned. Nov 1 pm update: Stevens then endorsed Rogers at Detroit’s Perfecting Church (Axios, ABC News); Schumer called it a “despicable betrayal,” the Michigan Democratic Party and the DNC Black Caucus chair condemned it, others called it a “disgrace”; Trump praised her. Pelosi and AOC condemnations (relayed in a friends’ chat) were not found in the search results. Nate Silver’s post puts the odds it moves the race as low but not zero. Rogers claims, without evidence, a 7-pt lead among returned ballots. Polls: Mitchell 51–44 and CNN 49–42 El-Sayed; DDHQ 74% El-Sayed. Trump says Black and Jewish voters would be “crazy” to back El-Sayed. Nov 2 check (snippets only): NBC and Fox confirm Stevens endorsed Rogers Sunday, citing the antisemitic-ad dispute and El-Sayed’s ties to Hasan Piker; MI Democratic chair Curtis Hertel says the party is united behind El-Sayed and Stevens is not a member now or in future; El-Sayed: “I actually don’t think about Haley Stevens,” campaigned with Dingell and Warren, and reportedly raised over $2.4M in a day (single snippet). Rogers said her decision was about El-Sayed’s “behavior and divisiveness.” Discrepancies: the line below (“she says she’s still voting for El-Sayed”) conflicts with this endorsement and is probably stale. One Newsweek snippet names the fiancé as Jason Turkish, not David Kramer (Kramer is the former campaign chair) — check. The Perfecting Church location and Pelosi/AOC reactions were not confirmed in searches. Nov 1 (later): Stevens appeared at a Detroit church service with Rogers (about 11:20 a.m.) after being uninvited from a joint El-Sayed event; Michigan Democrats held their own church event for a united front. She says she’s still voting for El-Sayed and called the rift a “total distraction”; El-Sayed: she is “relitigating a primary that ended three months ago.” Marist (Oct 15–18): El-Sayed 50, Rogers 48. Michigan may not be called until Wednesday (Detroit News, Local10/AP) | Medium | Last-weekend ads. “Misleading” is Michigan Public’s characterization; the full ad text wasn’t available | Michigan Public Oct 30, IBTimes, RedState (R) |
| 16 | TX, GA, ME | AI deepfakes. TX: NRSC deepfake of Talarico (Mar); Talarico (Oct 29) says AI robocalls are attacking him over data centers. GA: Collins campaign deepfake of Ossoff, defenders say labeled satire. ME: AI ad against Platner carries the state-law disclosure; Collins’ campaign says it isn’t hers. TX bans deepfake ads within 30 days of state elections but not federal | Medium | Mostly earlier-in-year items, not new this weekend | CNN Oct 29, CBS Atlanta, Bangor Daily News, KRDO (snippets) |
| 17 | National (FCC robocalls) | The Republican-led FCC advanced a conservative group’s waiver request to loosen political robocall rules, including AI voices, before the midterms; ruling possible late October. Commissioner Gomez opposed | Medium | No decision found as of Nov 2 (petition is Club for Growth’s; reply comments closed Oct 19; proposed limits: opt-out and at most 3 calls per 30 days; coverage found runs only to ~Oct 19; snippets) — unresolved | Boston Globe/AP Oct 7, Al Jazeera |
| 18 | WA | Democrats sent a cease-and-desist over a GOP-backed PAC mailer (Michael Shepard race) alleging AI-manipulated image without a required disclosure | Low | Not read; snippet only | Axios Seattle Oct 22 |
| 19 | NC Senate (Cooper D vs Whatley R) | Ad fights, no weekend-specific news found. Senate Leadership Fund (R) ad uses the father of a woman killed in a 2025 SC home invasion and ties her death to Cooper’s 2021 COVID-era inmate-release settlement; Cooper’s campaign calls it misleading. Cooper’s “There’s More” ad and a $2.3M Democratic-aligned campaign tie Whatley to convicted sex offender Harvey West. SLF cancelled reservations after pledging $71M and spending under half | Low | Fact-checks exist (FactCheck.org, Duke Chronicle) but weren’t read | QC News, NC Newsline, WRAL, FactCheck.org (snippets) |
| 20 | TX Senate (Talarico D vs Paxton R) | Toss-up. Talarico says over $300M of outside money is against him; Musk has put in over $150M for Paxton. Early vote about 6.76M ballots. Texas Southern 49–47 Talarico, Quantus 48.7–47.6 Paxton, DDHQ 59% Talarico. Trump campaigning virtually. AI robocalls vs Talarico (row 16) | Medium | Weekend rallies: Paxton in Fort Worth with Abbott and Cruz, Talarico in Houston | NewsNation, PBS, Click2Houston (snippets) |
| 21 | GA Senate (Ossoff D vs Collins R) | AJC poll Ossoff 48–40; Quantus 52–45; over 2M early ballots. No new dirty-tricks news found beyond the earlier Collins deepfake | Low | Final pitches; Ossoff event with Harris in Atlanta | AJC, Rough Draft Atlanta (snippets) |
| 23 | TX (mailers, county suit) | A mailer that appears to come from the transgender group TENT, with a nonexistent near-identical return address (spokesman blamed a “typo” by the printer), was sent to as many as 3 million voters; a judge gave TENT an early win; one report links a family member of the sender to Paxton backer Doug Deason (unverified). Separately, Paxton’s AG office sued Harris County over “discriminatory” get-out-the-vote ads (county calls it politically motivated). A “Republicans for Talarico” group was reported by Texas outlets (and partisan R sites) as made up of women who voted in Democratic primaries; Talarico’s spokesperson says no ties | Medium | Snippets from LGBTQ Nation, Houston Chronicle, Legal Insurrection (R), Daily Wire (R); not read. Verify against CBS and Texas Observer. Nov 2 search found nothing new on the mailer; a separate real “Republicans for Talarico” endorsement list (21 current/former GOP officials, Newsweek snippet) exists, which may be a different thing from the group above | LGBTQ Nation, Houston Chronicle |
| 24 | PA, AZ, OH Gov, WI | PA: Shapiro (D) vs Garrity (R); $10M effort to flip the state Senate. AZ: Hobbs (D) vs Biggs (R), framed as a fight over who certifies 2028; Biggs backed a long-shot 2020 suit to overturn results in GA, MI, PA, WI. OH: Ramaswamy (R) defended an ad featuring the estranged mother of Amy Acton (D); DeWine called it wrong and urged it off the air; Trump said “no” to reconsidering support. WI: nothing current found | Low | Not read | MS NOW, AP via WJTV (snippets) |
| 25 | House | NPR: 70 districts where both parties are spending six figures; ABC rates 16 tossups and Democrats need a net three-seat gain; about a third of Cook’s 18 tossups are recent GOP gerrymanders; Florida’s two redrawn seats near $90M in ads; SCOTUS let California’s map stand (shifts five seats toward Democrats). NPR also found OpenAI’s chatbot citing sites that are thinly veiled Democratic ads dressed as local news in House races (a dirty trick on the D side). CNN said a ruling on a DOJ suit could come Nov 1; the snippet didn’t say which (Nov 2: almost certainly the AK suit, dismissed Nov 1, row 1; CNN page returned HTTP 451, so unconfirmed) | Medium | Not read | NPR Oct 26/29/30, ABC, MS NOW (snippets) |
| 26 | OH Senate (Brown D vs Husted R) | Close: ActiVote Oct 31 50.2–49.8 Brown; Fox 52–47 Brown; Kalshi 68% Brown. Outside spending about $198.5M for Husted vs $94.7M for Brown (NBC4 via search). Trump phone rallies | Low | No dirty-tricks news found | ActiVote, Kalshi, FOX19 (snippets) |
| 27 | MS Senate (Hyde-Smith R vs Colom D) | Recount watch, added 2026-11-04. Uncalled. Colom leads 462,821 to 462,778 (43 votes, 48.9% each; Pinkins I 2.1%) at 95.6% in as of 6 a.m. Wed (Mississippi Free Press, WLOX, The Hill, NBC, search snippets; no page opened). NBC: ~44,000 votes outstanding, Hyde-Smith needs ~49% of them. Hinds County paused its count overnight. A margin this small is inside AP’s 0.5-pt no-call standard (see race-calls.md), so expect no call until the count finishes and a likely recount or challenge. Both candidates said they expect to win. A Colom win would be an 8th Dem flip (Trump +20 in 2024). Not on our pre-election list |
High | Check: Hinds County resumption, AP call, MS recount rules and certification dates (not yet looked up) | Mississippi Free Press, WLOX, The Hill, NBC (snippets) |
DOJ election monitors
Notices so far, as of Oct 23. DOJ has published no full list, and Oregon press reports that at least 10 states have received notices.
| Jurisdiction | Notified | Reaction | Close races there |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adams County, CO | Oct 21 letter (cites VRA §203 language access) | Clerk Josh Zygielbaum (D): “potentially an intimidation technique.” He asks why GOP-run Weld County wasn’t picked. Griswold: observers need state approval. Bennet led a CO delegation objection Oct 23 (from the lead; not independently fetched) | CO-8 Evans* vs Rutinel |
| Withdrawn Oct 22 as “made in error” | — | — | |
| Philadelphia, Allegheny, Luzerne, Lehigh, PA | Letter to PA Dept of State, ~Oct 23 | Dept of State: monitors get no more access than the public. DOJ cites a probe of 19 alleged noncitizen votes | PA-7, PA-8 |
| Detroit, East Lansing, Flint, Grand Rapids, Hamtramck, Lansing, Warren, MI | ~Oct 22 (announced by AG Nessel) | Nessel publicized the notices | MI-7, MI-10, MI Senate |
| Hennepin & Ramsey, MN | ~Oct 21 | DOJ was denied close access in August. SoS: too early to say whether that changes | MN Senate, MN governor |
| Marion & Lake, IN | ~Oct 22 | Marion clerk: “not told what criteria was used” | IN-1 (Likely D), IN SoS |
| King County, WA | ~Oct 21–23 | DOJ says it is checking voting-rights and disability-access compliance | — |
| Multnomah County, OR | ~Oct 23 | SoS Tobias Read: interference is illegal, including by DOJ. Elections director: monitors follow the same rules as everyone else | — |
| Miami-Dade, FL | ~Oct 21 | None reported | FL-27 (Lean R) |
| 7 Texas counties (unnamed) | ~Oct 21 | None reported yet. Texas blocked DOJ monitors in polling places in 2024 | TX Senate, TX-15/23/34/35 |
| Utah, Maine | State-level notice reported; no counties named | Maine SoS told clerks to call the state if monitors ask for access | ME Senate, ME-2 |
DOJ’s rules for monitors: observe only, no firearms, no talking to voters inside polling places, follow state law. Several states (CO, PA, TX, SD) say monitors have no more access than the public unless a court order or state approval gives them more.
Certification & counting
- The law: In every state, certification is ministerial, meaning officials must certify and have no discretion to refuse. Courts can order it (mandamus). California (2025) and Michigan have written this into law explicitly; in Michigan the state board takes over if a county misses its 14-day deadline.
- Georgia State Election Board: The 2024 rules for hand-counting ballot totals and for “reasonable inquiry” before certification were struck down, and the GA Supreme Court upheld the block in June 2025. No new 2026 SEB rule was found in current reporting. Counties certify by 5 p.m. the Monday after the election; the state certifies within 17 days.
- Arizona: Cochise County supervisors were prosecuted over the 2022 delay (Judd pleaded guilty). Maricopa’s divided administration (recorder vs. board) is the operational risk.
- New federal pressure points: DOJ suits aimed at certification (AK) and at counting ballots (CA) are new. Before 2026, certification fights were local.
Election officials & deniers
- For secretary of state races see 2026 State Races — Governors, Election Officials, Legislatures, Courts. Election deniers on the ballot include Jim Marchant (NV SoS), Alexander Kolodin (AZ SoS) and Andy Biggs (AZ governor).
- Turnover and threats: In Brennan Center’s 2024 survey, 38% of local election officials reported threats or harassment and 1 in 5 said they were unlikely to serve through 2026. The Bipartisan Policy Center put turnover in 2024 at 41%, the highest in 25+ years. No 2026-specific survey was found.
- Inside the administration: Heather Honey is DHS deputy assistant secretary for election integrity. In February she told election officials there would be “no ICE presence at polling locations.”
Count timing — when to expect results
General patterns from recent cycles. NPR’s Oct 19 piece is the 2026-specific source for CA and AK.
| State | Counts mail early? | Typical timing | Mirage risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA | No. Processing starts 7 a.m. Election Day | Most votes counted overnight, the rest over 1–3 days | High. Mail is counted late and leans D (blue shift) |
| WI | No. Processing starts Election Day; Milwaukee’s central count reports late | Overnight | High. Late-night D bump |
| MI | Yes. Pre-processing has been allowed since 2024 | Election night into the next morning | Low–Medium |
| GA | Yes | Mostly election night | Low. Runoff Dec 1 if no one passes 50% |
| NC | Yes. Mail must arrive by Election Day | Election night | Low |
| AZ | Yes, but early ballots dropped off on Election Day take days | 3–10 days | Medium. Late drop-offs have recently leaned R |
| NV | Yes. Accepts ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive afterward | Several days | Medium |
| CA | Yes, but up to 50% of mail ballots arrive on Election Day | Weeks. $40M spent this year to speed counting | High (blue shift). Only 3 competitive House seats this year |
| AK | Partial. Ranked-choice tabulation comes later | About 2 weeks. In 2024 the AP called AK-AL on Nov 20 | High. Senate control could wait on AK |
| ME | Yes. Ranked-choice tabulation if no one wins a majority | Days to about a week | Medium |
| TX, FL | Yes | Election night | Low |
Key dates
| Date | What |
|---|---|
| Oct 25 | 9th Circuit argument, CA noncitizen-ballot suit (9th Cir. denied DOJ 2–1 Oct 30; SCOTUS denied Nov 2) |
| Nov 1 | AK DOJ suit dismissed (Judge Gleason); DOJ appealing to 9th Cir. |
| Oct 27 | District court hearing (Judge Carter), CA noncitizen-ballot suit |
| Oct 28 | USCIS must produce SAVE records (FOIA suit) |
| Tue Nov 3 | Election Day |
| Nov 9 | GA county certification deadline (5 p.m.) |
| Nov 16 | FL county returns due |
| ~Nov 17 | MI county canvass deadline (14 days) |
| Nov 19 | AZ county canvass deadline |
| ~Nov 20 | GA statewide certification (17 days) |
| Nov 23 | AZ statewide canvass |
| Dec 1 | GA runoffs |
| Dec 3 | CA county certification deadline |
| Jan 3, 2027 | New Congress convenes |
Caveats
- No national DOJ monitor list exists. The table above is assembled from local reports and will grow. The 7 Texas counties are unnamed.
- Unverified: the Bennet-led CO delegation objection (Oct 23) and the Oct 9 Colorado observer-rule change. The SoS did adopt permanent election rules Oct 9, but I couldn’t confirm what they say about observers. The ~Oct dates for MI, IN, OR and WA notices are approximate.
- The count-timing table describes general patterns from 2020–2024, not 2026 reporting (except CA and AK). The MI and GA “~” deadlines are computed from statute, not from a published calendar.
- Afternoon refresh (Oct 24): the CA appeal schedule and the LA County “1 in 4” sample come from Democracy Docket (D-aligned); RedState (R) reports the same Oct 25 argument. Blanche’s quote is from The Hill via search summary (page blocked). Sources differ on the AK filing date (Oct 22 vs Fri Oct 23).
- Oct 31 refresh: only the Michigan Public and IBTimes pages were read in full. Everything else in rows 1a and 15–18, and the AK updates, comes from search summaries. The NYT recruitment report, the FCC outcome and North Carolina/Ohio ad news are unchecked. The Carlson-ad dispute appears in one snippet; IBTimes doesn’t mention it.
- Nov 1 refresh: all from search summaries; no pages read. Maine resolved (Nov 1, later): Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee; Platner withdrew in July after a sexual-assault allegation he denies. Row 16’s Platner AI ad dates from April, before the withdrawal. No FCC robocall decision found (latest coverage about Oct 7–19). Wisconsin: nothing current found. PA and AZ: only race-level items (rows 23–24).
- Nov 2 refresh: read in full: CNBC Nov 1 (AK dismissal), CNBC Nov 2 (SCOTUS), Democracy Docket Oct 26 (AK fast-track). Alaska Beacon returned 403, NPR timed out, CNN HTTP 451. NYT recruitment piece not reachable; allegation stays unverified. Not found: FCC decision, final DOJ monitor list, state-probe results, county-board refusals, new PA/AZ/WI items, Thompson hearing outcome, 9th Cir. action on the AK appeal.
- Partisan or advocacy sources: Democracy Docket (D-aligned), Daily Signal (R-leaning) and Protect Democracy (pro-democracy advocacy), each labeled where cited.
Sources
-
DOJ monitors: NPR — DOJ begins notifying counties (Oct 21) · Houston Public Media (NPR) (Oct 22) · OPB — NPR version (Oct 21) · Colorado Politics (Oct 22) · 9News · Colorado Newsline (Oct 23) · CO SoS rules (Oct 9) · Local21 — PA counties (Oct 23) · Michigan Advance (Oct 22) · MPR (Oct 21) · WFYI — Marion, Lake (Oct 22) · WA State Standard (Oct 23) · OPB — Multnomah (Oct 23) · Estacada News — 10 states (Oct 23) · AP — Wyoming (Aug 28)
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Federal suits: NBC — Alaska suit (Oct 23) · CNBC — Trump ordered it (Oct 23) · Cato (libertarian) · California suit (Sinclair wire) (Oct 15–16) · MS NOW — Peltola/DSCC move to intervene (Oct 24) · The Hill — Blanche on AK suit (~Oct 24) · Democracy Docket — DOJ appeals before Carter rules (D-aligned) (Oct 22) · Democracy Docket — 9th Circuit to hear CA appeal (D-aligned) (Oct 24) · AP — Democrats sue (Oct 20) · Democracy Docket — cases to watch (D-aligned) (Oct 14) · Democracy Docket — Arlington (Oct 20) · AP — ICE at polls (Oct 2)
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Executive orders, mail ballots, USPS: Votebeat — SCOTUS lifts 1 of 2 injunctions (Aug 24) · Votebeat — EO status (Aug 28) · The Hill — SCOTUS won’t restore mail plan (Sep 14) · Venable — Watson v. RNC (Jul) · Spectrum — USPS postmark (Jan 23)
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Voter rolls: Protect Democracy — nationwide ruling (Oct 9) · ProPublica tracker · Brennan tracker · SL Tribune — Utah (Oct 23)
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Certification and administration: Democracy Docket — rogue counties (Sep 21) · Protect Democracy — 2026 FAQ · KJZZ — Cochise (Mar 9) · Votebeat — Maricopa (Oct 22) · ACLU — GA Supreme Court on SEB rules (Jun 2025) · Stateline — Fulton FBI raid (Jan 28)
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Officials: NBC — Brennan survey (2024) · NPR — turnover highest in decades (Aug 2025)
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Timing and disinformation: NPR — why some results take a while (Oct 19) · Newsweek — Silver drops fake polls (~Oct 21) · Wire — Wedgewood “social experiment”
-
Nov 2 additions: CNBC — AK suit dismissed (Nov 1, read) · CNBC — Supreme Court denies DOJ on CA ballots (Nov 2, read) · Democracy Docket — Gleason fast-tracks (D-aligned) (Oct 26, read) · CNN — AK ruling (blocked, snippet) · NPR — AK ruling (timed out) · NBC — Stevens endorses Rogers (snippet) · NBC — 9th Cir. rejects DOJ again (snippet) · Political.org — NYT recruitment report summary (snippet)
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Oct 31 additions: Michigan Public — Black-voter ads (Oct 30) · IBTimes — Rebellion PAC ad · RedState (R) (Oct 26) · CNBC — DOJ escalates AK suit (Oct 29) · CBS — DOJ asks to segregate ballots · Election Law Blog — NVRA preamble · Harvard Gazette · ABC — Peltola denies · The Hill — Peltola doubles down · Fox — Sullivan “still lying” (R-leaning) · CBS — Peltola “knew nothing” · Boston Globe — FCC robocalls (Oct 7) · CNN live blog (Oct 29) · CBS Atlanta — Ossoff deepfake · Bangor Daily News — Platner ad · Axios Seattle — WA mailer
Post-election scorecard (to fill after Nov 3)
Fred’s prediction (2026-10-29, meme): Republicans “will dispute every race that matters, close or not.” Make it testable: for each race below, record the margin, whether the Republican loser conceded, how many days it took, and any lawsuit or certification challenge. Also compare mail vs drop-box returns with 2022 and 2024 once the EAC survey is out (Fred’s idea).
| Race | Margin | Loser conceded? (days) | Suit or certification challenge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK Senate | DOJ suit filed 2026-10-22; dismissed 2026-11-01 (Gleason, no standing); DOJ appealing to 9th Cir.; U.S. Attorney probe of Dan J. Sullivan’s candidacy and state (Dunleavy) probe open; RCV tabulation about 2 weeks | Record whether Sen. Sullivan concedes if he loses (he said he’d accept results) and whether Trump or DOJ contest | ||
| CA noncitizen-ballot suit | n/a | n/a | DOJ lost at district court (Oct 28), 9th Cir. (Oct 30) and SCOTUS (Nov 2); suit continues | Record whether DOJ keeps pursuing after Nov 3 |
| MI Senate | Stevens endorsed Rogers Nov 1; may not be called until Wed | |||
| WA IL26-001 (parents’ rights) and IL26-638 (girls’ sports) | Yes/No % | n/a (ballot measures; record the result, no prediction asked) | Fred wants to check how it goes; WA counts by mail, so wait for later updates | |
| (add each Senate toss-up, close House race, and governor race) |