2026 Midterms — Race Tracking

General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Senate, House, forecasts and ballot measures — ranked closest first, refreshed every few days.

Questions, race tracking, and results for the 2026 midterm cycle. Fred’s own ballot choices are in the voter guides here.

Overheard

“On behalf of the 49 other states, can you explain Texas to us?” — Washington Week, heard 2026-10-24

“The shocking part isn’t that Talarico is leading. It’s that the race is even close when Ken Paxton is such a POS. It’s just sad for TX.” — source unknown, 2026-10-24

“Don’t blame me, my AI told me to vote for ‘None of the Above’!” — Fred, 2026-10-24

“The only thing not silly is the power of the people’s vote, and I think the people should use it to vote for ‘None of the above’.” — Brewster’s Millions (1985)

Layout

• 2026 Senate — Competitive Races — ranked closest first; issues by race
• 2026 House — Competitive Races — ranked closest first; issues; redistricting & gerrymander backfire
• 2026 Midterms — Realistic Forecasts & Nate Silver — what the models say vs. polls; where polls miss
• 2026 California Propositions — Watch List — ranked by stakes; Fred’s votes, backers, outlook
• 2026 Ballot Measures — National Watch List (outside CA) — outside CA; turnout-lever theory
• 2026 State Races — Governors, Election Officials, Legislatures, Courts — governors, secretaries of state, AGs, legislatures, state courts
• 2026 Election Watch — How the Vote Is Run and Counted — how the vote is run and counted: DOJ monitors, certification, count timing
• Fred’s Voter Guide — November 3, 2026 — Fred’s ballot (working notes: 2026-11-03 voter-guide.md, local only)
• races/ — per-race notes if needed (structure TBD)

Updating

Fred refreshes every few days. Each doc has a Snapshot history table — add a row per update rather than overwriting, so trends stay visible. Prefer realism-weighted sources (Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, Cook) over single polls.

Web: https://obtainium.org/politics/2026-midterms/ — republish from projects/obtainium: node bin/publish.mjs run midterms-2026 --push.