2026 Midterms — Race Tracking
General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Archived 2026-11-07. Democrats won the Senate (54-44, two uncalled) and the House (254-162, 19 uncalled as of Nov 7); each page carries a closing update with the results. These pages are election-eve snapshots and will not be updated further.
Questions, race tracking, and results for the 2026 midterm cycle. Fred’s own ballot choices are in Fred’s Voter Guide — November 3, 2026 (California).
Overheard
“On behalf of the 49 other states, can you explain Texas to us?” — Washington Week, heard 2026-10-24
“The shocking part isn’t that Talarico is leading. It’s that the race is even close when Ken Paxton is such a POS. It’s just sad for TX.” — source unknown, 2026-10-24
“Don’t blame me, my AI told me to vote for ‘None of the Above’!” — Fred, 2026-10-24
“The only thing not silly is the power of the people’s vote, and I think the people should use it to vote for ‘None of the above’.” — Brewster’s Millions (1985)
“I am Dan Sullivan!” / “I thought you were Spartacus? Jean Valjean? Cornholio??” / “I can be more than one.” — Fred (made up), 2026-10-30, on the two Dan Sullivans on Alaska’s Senate ballot
Layout
- 2026 Senate — Competitive Races — ranked closest first; issues by race
- 2026 House — Competitive Races — ranked closest first; issues; redistricting & gerrymander backfire
- 2026 Midterms — Realistic Forecasts & Nate Silver — what the models say vs. polls; where polls miss
- 2026 California Propositions — Watch List — ranked by stakes; Fred’s votes, backers, outlook
- 2026 Ballot Measures — National Watch List (outside CA) — outside CA; turnout-lever theory
- 2026 State Races — Governors, Election Officials, Legislatures, Courts — governors, secretaries of state, AGs, legislatures, state courts
- 2026 Election Watch — How the Vote Is Run and Counted — how the vote is run and counted: DOJ monitors, certification, count timing
- The Final Weekend: Dirty Tricks and Legal Fights — plain-prose report, 2026-11-01: Alaska, California, Michigan ads, AI material
- Fred’s Voter Guide — November 3, 2026 — Fred’s ballot (working notes:
2026-11-03 voter-guide.md, local only) races/— per-race notes if needed (structure TBD)
Updating
Fred refreshes every few days. Each doc has a Snapshot history table — add a row per update rather than overwriting, so trends stay visible. Prefer realism-weighted sources (Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, Cook) over single polls.
Web: https://obtainium.org/politics/2026-midterms/ — republish from projects/obtainium: node bin/publish.mjs run midterms-2026 --push.